According to Armenia’s 2021–2026 government program, the authorities plan to reduce the duration of compulsory military service while expanding the contractual service model. The first major step is a proposed amendment to the law “On Military Service and the Status of Servicemen,” which reduces mandatory service from 24 months to 18 months starting January 1, 2026.
Earlier, the Prime Minister stated that the reform aims to shift from a “combat-ready army” to a “defensive army,” which, in his view, will protect Armenia’s territorial integrity more effectively. However, the parliamentary opposition demands clear answers regarding potential risks and whether meaningful steps are being taken to manage them.
Experts Vitali Manasaryan and Karen Vrtanesyan shared their assessments.
A pre-election move disguised as reform
Karen Vrtanesyan described the initiative sharply, calling it a calculated pre-election move.
“This is essentially a way to influence a specific segment of society — families with sons of conscription age. Right before elections, the government announces: your sons will serve six months less.”
The reform was initially planned for mid-2026 but was suddenly moved to January. According to Vrtanesyan, this shift highlights the political motive behind the decision.
He also notes that referring to the government program is meaningless, as many of its points have not been fulfilled or were implemented in the opposite direction.
Vrtanesyan adds that a shorter service term will create additional pressure on families due to more frequent reserve call-ups:
“If a conscript serves less, his father and brothers will be called to mandatory training more often. And these are not simple exercises — they involve combat duty on frontline positions.”
He reminds that the Ministry of Defense has already spoken about a shortage of active personnel. In many cases, reservists remain in combat positions for over a month because there is no one to replace them.
As a result, he believes the reform will deepen the existing manpower shortage:
“Today, soldiers are deployed to frontline posts after just one month of service. With an 18-month term, the problem will only grow. The Ministry of Defense has already stated that duty rotations will become longer, in some cases up to 20 days.”
4,200 contract soldiers are not enough
Vitali Manasaryan argues that the government’s justification is insufficient.
According to him, the authorities rely on the fact that the “Defender of the Homeland” program has attracted around 4,200 contract soldiers.
“But if the term of compulsory service drops to 18 months, this program will become less attractive,” he warns.
Manasaryan calls it a strategic mistake to expect a steady increase in contract soldiers:
“If there is not enough manpower, the 25-day reserve call-ups will not solve the problem. Yet this is the only mechanism currently used to compensate for the lack of personnel.”