The Minsk Group cannot be dissolved solely on the basis of requests from Armenia and Azerbaijan, stated Ara Papyan, head of the analytical center “Modus Vivendi.”
He emphasized that the Minsk Group was created by consensus among 57 countries, and it can only be dissolved in the same manner. Claiming that the group could be disbanded solely at the initiative of two countries is premature.
Undoubtedly, during the Washington meeting, U.S. President Donald Trump also called on the OSCE countries to dismantle the Minsk process and the structures established within it. This can be seen as a form of pressure on member states, which will certainly have some influence.
Nevertheless, Papyan is confident that reaching a consensus among such a large number of countries will be extremely difficult։
“Someone will inevitably vote against it — this could be Cyprus, Greece, Switzerland, or possibly even Russia. Previously, Moscow supported the dissolution of the Minsk Group, but at that time it expected to gain full control of the process and become the sole actor. Now, realizing that the initiative has passed into Washington’s hands, Russia would lose its last instrument of influence if the Minsk Group were disbanded. Considering the current tensions with Baku, this tool is especially important”.
Thus, the positions of Armenia and Azerbaijan are certainly significant, but without the agreement of all 57 countries, dissolving the Minsk Group is impossible.
Papyan also noted that disbanding the Minsk Group would have extremely negative consequences for the Armenian side. These 57 countries, as participants in the process, had the opportunity to raise a wide range of issues — from the return of Armenians to Artsakh to the destruction of Armenian cultural and religious monuments. After the Minsk Group is dissolved, such opportunities will be limited, and countries raising these issues would have to refer to other international documents.
“Moreover, the dissolution of the Minsk Group would effectively mean that all 57 countries agree that the Artsakh issue is closed“, – he said.