The agenda of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations currently focuses on three key issues: the so-called peace treaty, border delimitation and demarcation, and the unblocking of communication routes. This was stated by political analyst Sergey Melkonyan.
According to Melkonyan, as early as March of this year, both sides announced that the text of the peace treaty had been fully agreed upon. However, its contents remain unknown to the general public. “If the document is indeed finalized, it means no further changes are expected. This raises a legitimate question: why has it not yet been published?” Melkonyan noted.
He added that, according to some sources, an agreement was reached in Abu Dhabi to soon initial the peace treaty. Initialing, the analyst explains, involves the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan placing their initials on the treaty’s text as a sign of political will to sign it in the future, contingent on resolving certain issues.
For the Armenian authorities, initialing is significant as it allows them to demonstrate progress on the peace agenda to the domestic audience. Likely, ahead of elections, emphasis will be placed on the fact that the peace treaty has been initialed, with the narrative that if the ruling party wins, the treaty will be signed. In public discourse, this could be framed under the slogan: “Our victory is peace.”
However, initialing the document also implies that Armenia must meet certain conditions before the treaty is signed. One such condition, it is assumed, is the road through Syunik. Based on the outcomes of the Abu Dhabi meeting, Melkonyan notes, the discussions did not cover the entire range of issues related to opening borders but focused solely on the Syunik road. This, according to Melkonyan, poses diplomatic risks for Armenia: “For us, strategic access to Iran through Nakhichevan and to Russia through Azerbaijan’s territory is crucial. However, judging by Baku’s rhetoric, these directions are absent from Azerbaijan’s agenda.”
Melkonyan also emphasized that Turkey is a key player in the current process. “When Yerevan and Baku claim that negotiations are conducted bilaterally, it feels like an attempt to ignore the elephant in the room. That elephant is Turkey. Today’s negotiation agenda essentially reflects Turkish interests and follows this scenario: not to unblock all transport corridors but to focus exclusively on opening the so-called Zangezur Corridor, securing a special regime for this road,” he said.
According to the analyst, it is critically important for Baku and Ankara that this route lacks full Armenian control. “Ilham Aliyev insists on no direct contact between Armenians and Azerbaijanis on the road—this, in essence, is the ‘corridor,’ regardless of its official name. Reducing Armenian presence from 100% to 50% would be the first step, followed by an attempt to eliminate the remaining 50%, leading to complete Turkish dominance,” he explained.
At the same time, Melkonyan warns, all these concessions from Armenia will be presented as a diplomatic achievement, but in reality, Armenia will only receive an initialed treaty that lacks binding force under international law.