The signing of a peace treaty with Armenia is a prerequisite for Azerbaijan’s inclusion in the Abraham Accords, according to political analyst Stepan Grigoryan.
He stated that the U.S. set this condition to ensure that any subsequent support provided to Baku would not be used against Armenia. “It’s clear that Azerbaijan is heading to the Washington meeting not for Armenia’s sake but for its own interests. By joining the Abraham Accords, Azerbaijan would not only gain key privileges but also alleviate pressure, including from the U.S. Congress, which insists on the return of Armenians to Artsakh,” Grigoryan noted.
He emphasized that the U.S. is indeed in a hurry to accelerate the reconciliation process between Armenia and Azerbaijan. However, the expert believes the reasons for this urgency are primarily domestic rather than tied to grand geopolitical plans. “Trump came to power promising to resolve international conflicts, particularly the one in Ukraine. However, Putin managed to outmaneuver him, and the war continues. This has been a serious blow to Trump’s image. With mid-term elections approaching in the U.S., this reputational damage puts Republicans at risk of a crushing defeat. Therefore, Trump is eager to offset his foreign policy failures with successful peace initiatives in other areas,” he explained.
According to Grigoryan, advancing the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan is not only an attempt to bolster Trump’s position ahead of the elections but also a kind of response to Vladimir Putin for his intransigence on the Ukraine issue. “In essence, the signing of a peace agreement between Yerevan and Baku in Washington would signify that it is happening under U.S. auspices. Simply put, Donald Trump is pushing Russia out of the South Caucasus. This would be a multifaceted political response to Putin—if the initiative proves successful,” he stated.
Grigoryan is confident that Armenia would only benefit from signing the agreement. “No matter what is said, Armenia currently has room to maneuver. If the treaty is signed now—and in the form that has been preliminarily agreed upon—it would mean that Baku’s preconditions, particularly demands for constitutional reforms, would be removed from the agenda,” the analyst concluded. He believes that the Washington meeting could lead to the initialing of a peace treaty, as many suggest. “But I think Trump won’t stop there and will push for the actual signing of the peace agreement,” the expert added.
Peace for Agreements: What the U.S. Demands from Azerbaijan
The signing of a peace treaty with Armenia is a prerequisite for Azerbaijan’s inclusion in the Abraham Accords, according to political analyst Stepan Grigoryan. He stated that the U.S. set this condition to ensure that any subsequent support provided to Baku would not be used against Armenia. “It’s clear that Azerbaijan is heading to the Washington meeting not for Armenia’s sake but for its own interests. By joining the Abraham Accords, Azerbaijan would not only gain key privileges but also alleviate pressure, including from the U.S. Congress, which insists on the return of Armenians to Artsakh,” Grigoryan noted.
He emphasized that the U.S. is indeed in a hurry to accelerate the reconciliation process between Armenia and Azerbaijan. However, the expert believes the reasons for this urgency are primarily domestic rather than tied to grand geopolitical plans. “Trump came to power promising to resolve international conflicts, particularly the one in Ukraine. However, Putin managed to outmaneuver him, and the war continues. This has been a serious blow to Trump’s image. With mid-term elections approaching in the U.S., this reputational damage puts Republicans at risk of a crushing defeat. Therefore, Trump is eager to offset his foreign policy failures with successful peace initiatives in other areas,” he explained.
According to Grigoryan, advancing the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan is not only an attempt to bolster Trump’s position ahead of the elections but also a kind of response to Vladimir Putin for his intransigence on the Ukraine issue. “In essence, the signing of a peace agreement between Yerevan and Baku in Washington would signify that it is happening under U.S. auspices. Simply put, Donald Trump is pushing Russia out of the South Caucasus. This would be a multifaceted political response to Putin—if the initiative proves successful,” he stated.
Grigoryan is confident that Armenia would only benefit from signing the agreement. “No matter what is said, Armenia currently has room to maneuver. If the treaty is signed now—and in the form that has been preliminarily agreed upon—it would mean that Baku’s preconditions, particularly demands for constitutional reforms, would be removed from the agenda,” the analyst concluded. He believes that the Washington meeting could lead to the initialing of a peace treaty, as many suggest. “But I think Trump won’t stop there and will push for the actual signing of the peace agreement,” the expert added.