Iran’s capabilities have been significantly limited following recent military aggression, so one should not count on its intervention in the event of a new attack on Armenia, according to political analyst Grant Melik-Shahnazaryan.
He stated that recent events have dealt a tangible blow to Iran, sharply reducing its potential for active engagement in the region. Currently, Iran is focused on addressing its own critical domestic issues. “Any involvement by Iran would not only be a move against Azerbaijan but also an act against Turkey. Amid internal challenges, including the rise of pan-Turanian ideology, Tehran is unlikely to be interested in creating additional threats for itself,” the expert noted.
For this reason, he believes it is unwise to overly rely on Iranian support. “Of course, cooperation and the development of relations with Iran should continue, but harboring excessive illusions is not advisable. Tehran’s loud statements about the unacceptability of external interference in regional affairs and the creation of a corridor through Syunik may remain just words. Unfortunately, I strongly doubt Iran’s ability to significantly influence these processes,” Melik-Shahnazaryan emphasized.
Moreover, in his view, even when Iran is involved in regional processes, its behavior is not always clear-cut. “For example, for three decades, Iran has talked about the need to build roads and tunnels to establish the North-South transport corridor through Armenia. However, no real steps have been taken in this regard,” the analyst pointed out.
He also recalled that, until 2020, Tehran unofficially viewed Armenian Artsakh as an important factor in its own security. “Nevertheless, neither during the 44-day war nor afterward did Iran take any steps to ensure that at least part of Artsakh remained under Armenian control, despite having the opportunity to do so. Moreover, Iran had valid reasons to intervene—particularly the involvement of ISIS units and Israeli military specialists fighting on Azerbaijan’s side. During the latest aggression against Iran itself, certain actions against the Islamic Republic were carried out from the territory of former Artsakh,” he stated.