For Armenia, the most discussed infrastructure component of the trilateral declaration signed in Washington is the so-called “Trump Road” (TRIPP), which is expected to generate very limited direct revenue. According to David Ananyan, former Chairman of Armenia’s State Revenue Committee, if the project’s economic conditions remain within the currently known parameters, Armenia’s profit from transit fees will amount to approximately $4.5 million per year.
“This amount could only increase in a theoretical maximum scenario, where the volume of cargo transportation reaches 20 million tons and Armenia’s share is 100%. In that case, we’re talking about $17.2 million,” Ananyan explains.
His calculations are based on several key parameters. First, it is assumed that the length of the elevated (overpass) highway will be approximately 43 kilometers, with an annual cargo transportation volume of 15 million tons. This is comparable to the capacity of medium-to-large international transit routes.
Second, the fee calculation is based on the maximum international tariff of $0.02 per ton-kilometer. According to preliminary estimates, Armenia’s share could be around 35%, based on the experience of global public-private partnership (PPP) projects.
Finally, it is considered that the road is unlikely to be integrated into Armenia’s internal logistics or economic systems. This means that the country’s profit will be limited solely to transit fees, without additional revenue from stops, fuel sales, service points, or customs services.
“If this project is not expanded or linked to Armenia’s economy, its economic benefit will be extremely modest. Moreover, if political conditions change and regional borders are fully opened, the need for such a closed corridor will be called into question,” David Ananyan emphasizes.
Thus, the “Trump Road” may not become an economic driver for the region but rather a technical transit solution, with financial benefits for Armenia remaining symbolic if implemented according to the outlined scenario.