Restrictions on Armenian products in the Russian market, however painful they may be for individual sectors, will not cause Armenia’s economy to collapse. According to former Deputy Prime Minister Vache Gabrielyan, the country can diversify its export destinations over the medium and long term, although the process will be difficult and expensive.
Some companies will not survive the new conditions, others will consolidate, and certain businesses will close. Overall, however, the economy should be able to adapt to the new reality.
At the same time, Gabrielyan does not believe the current restrictions will necessarily remain permanent. Such situations, he argues, eventually reach either a political or an economic resolution.
Armenia’s Export Problem Is Not Only About the Product
According to Gabrielyan, Armenia must first understand what products it can genuinely offer to the global market and whether those goods are competitive.
He notes that investments have been made in agriculture in recent years, intensive orchards have expanded and some producers have adopted more modern methods.
Nevertheless, this does not mean Armenia has already reached production volumes that would allow it to supply large quantities to foreign markets consistently.
Gabrielyan stresses that successful exports depend not only on the availability of goods but also on the entire infrastructure that delivers them to the final consumer.
New Markets Require Logistics and Trusted Certification
In Gabrielyan’s assessment, logistics, quality control systems and internationally recognized certification mechanisms are critical for exports.
Any country seeking to sell its products abroad must have laboratories whose findings are trusted by foreign partners.
When such a system exists, every shipment is not automatically treated with suspicion at the border, and goods can circulate more freely in the destination market.
Gabrielyan says Armenia already has several laboratories and producers capable of meeting these requirements.
The problem is that most producers still do not comply with the necessary standards, preventing the entire system from operating at the same level.
Exports Were Encouraged for Years Despite Quality Problems
The former deputy prime minister says Armenia long followed the principle that if a product could be sold and exported, it was already beneficial to the economy.
As a result, the state often avoided imposing stricter controls, hoping that producers would gradually improve quality over time.
According to Gabrielyan, that approach worked in some cases but failed in many others.
Small producers in particular are rarely eager to invest in quality assurance, international standards or modernization when they already have a stable market.
The consequences of that policy are now becoming visible because new markets impose significantly higher requirements, leaving unprepared producers unable to compete.
Which Producers Face the Greatest Risks?
Gabrielyan says the problems involving the Russian market should be divided into several categories.
One of them concerns phytosanitary controls on products of plant and animal origin.
The companies facing the greatest difficulties are those that supplied large volumes to Russian retail chains for many years.
These businesses built their entire production model around the needs of a single market and are therefore particularly vulnerable to any restrictions.
According to Gabrielyan, the government has provided limited support, including postponing certain loan obligations.
However, these measures offer only temporary relief.
“The problem is structural,” he says, stressing that financial assistance cannot replace the need to rebuild market access.
Certification Alone Is Not Enough to Enter the European Market
Gabrielyan says many people assume that once a product meets European requirements, exports can begin immediately.
In reality, certification is only the first step.
A producer also needs an established sales network, partners and distributors willing to represent the product, as well as consumers who recognize and trust the brand.
Without that system, even a high-quality product may struggle for years to secure a position in a new market.
For this reason, export diversification cannot be completed within a few months. It requires years of consistent work.
Armenia Failed to Diversify Markets in Time
According to Gabrielyan, Armenia has not done enough in recent years to make its products recognizable in new markets.
He attributes this to basic economic logic.
When a producer already has stable demand, predictable profits and an established market, there is little incentive to spend heavily on entering new markets.
Only a limited number of companies recognized years ago that dependence on a single destination was dangerous and began gradually diversifying their exports.
Most producers, however, lacked the necessary opportunities, contacts or knowledge and continued operating through the existing model.
Diversification Is Possible, but Results Will Take Time
Gabrielyan concludes that Armenia’s economy has the potential to diversify, but the process will require long-term work, consistency and substantial investment.
Some companies will be restructured, others will merge with larger businesses, while some will stop operating entirely.
Nevertheless, the economy as a whole can adapt to the new conditions and gradually develop a more diverse export structure.
He also notes that separate risks may emerge in fuel supplies.
Those issues, however, are governed by broader interstate agreements and extend beyond the challenges facing individual Armenian exporters.