Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statement regarding the 102nd Russian military base, made after his meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, has raised new questions about Armenia’s security system and the future of Armenian-Russian relations.
According to analyst Levon Barseghyan, under the current circumstances, Russia’s decision to bring the military base issue onto the political agenda should be viewed in the context of Moscow’s political calculations.
Putin Is Trying to Turn Into a Referendum Issue What Armenia Can Decide Itself
According to Barseghyan, at the current stage of relations with Armenia, Putin is seeking to create instruments of political pressure by linking the future of the military base to a possible decision by Armenian society.
He says the logic behind the Russian president’s statement is that if the Armenian people decide the military base is no longer necessary, Russia is prepared to withdraw it.
However, Barseghyan questions why the same logic was not applied to Armenia’s relations with the European Union or its membership in the EAEU.
He recalls that Armenia’s decision to abandon the European association process and join the Customs Union was made without a referendum.
According to Barseghyan, the military base issue does not necessarily have to be resolved through a referendum either. It could also be decided by parliament or the government.
At the same time, he stresses that what matters most to Moscow is not so much the possible outcome of a referendum as maintaining its political influence over Armenia.
The Russian Military Base Will Not Protect Armenia’s Territory
Barseghyan questions the 102nd military base’s actual ability to provide security for Armenia.
In his assessment, Russia has had several opportunities in recent years to demonstrate that it could act as a military guarantor of Armenia’s security, but this has not been proven in practice.
Barseghyan also refers to the war in Artsakh. According to him, Russia was conducting a peacekeeping mission in Artsakh but failed to prevent the forced displacement of the Armenian population during Azerbaijan’s military operations in September 2023.
“Who can believe that the base here will protect the Republic of Armenia?” he asks, stressing that Armenia’s defense cannot be built on another country’s military presence and political promises.
Barseghyan believes Armenia should develop its own defense capabilities and be prepared to protect its borders regardless of Russia’s position.
He also notes that criminal incidents involving Russian military base personnel on Armenian territory raise further questions about the security value of that presence.
Russia’s Interests and Armenia’s Security
According to Barseghyan, one of the main problems in Armenian-Russian relations is that Moscow has consistently presented its own geopolitical interests as a means of ensuring Armenia’s security.
He does not dispute Russia’s right to have its own interests.
However, he says the problem begins when Russian policy conflicts with Armenia’s interests while being presented as the protection of Armenia.
Barseghyan argues that over the past decades Russia has primarily defended its own regional interests, while also using the Artsakh issue in the process.
“We should not proceed from absurdities and lies that they are protecting our interests,” Barseghyan said, stressing that when Russian and Armenian interests coincided, Moscow could also defend Armenia’s interests.
However, he says this does not mean that the interests of the two countries have always been or will always be identical.