Azerbaijan expert Tatevik Hayrapetyan is convinced that real, long-term peace does not require propaganda. When peace truly exists, people feel it in their daily lives — without explanations. However, she says that Armenia is currently in a temporary, conditional “time-out” period of roughly three years. This window can become either the foundation for genuine peace or the prelude to another severe confrontation.
According to Hayrapetyan, there are two ways to use this period: either to seriously work toward establishing lasting peace through diplomacy, comprehensive security reforms, and modernization of the army, or to waste it on meaningless and dangerous agendas — staging symbolic events, generating propaganda noise, and engaging in internal political maneuvers.
Missed Security Opportunities and External Factors
Hayrapetyan recalls the situation of March–April last year, when, in her words, American mediation helped avert war. But she stresses that no one can guarantee a repetition of such a scenario, especially in today’s volatile and cynical world, where the norms of international law are increasingly questioned.
“What happens if the administration in the United States changes? What if the current limited cooperation between Russia and the U.S. turns into open confrontation, including in our region?” she asks, emphasizing that in such an uncertain environment Armenia must find its own solutions and not rely solely on external guarantees.
The Language of Force and the Price of Independence
In her view, the so-called peace treaty will never be signed — something that was already predictable three years ago. The so-called “Zangezur corridor,” she argues, represents a territorial demand by Azerbaijan, which Armenia must firmly oppose. According to her information, even the American side does not fully accept this formulation, as it contradicts the logic of their own initiatives.
She also notes that the United States is currently entangled in multiple global crises, and Armenia’s interests will not be a priority unless Armenia itself applies sufficient pressure. At the core of that pressure, she believes, must be security and the restoration of the army.
The Army as the Only Deterrence Tool
Hayrapetyan is convinced that if Armenia does not demonstrate to Azerbaijan that any new war would come at an unacceptably high cost — whether in three, five, or ten years — the threat will continue to loom over the country.
She emphasizes that governments are not permanent, but national security must be built on long-term calculations. The “time-out” Armenia has been given will either be used wisely, in the country’s interests, or squandered, leading to new and even more serious consequences.
“The choice is ours,” the Azerbaijan expert concludes.