The difference between the amount of import customs duties Armenia transferred to the EAEU’s common budget and the amount it received back in 2025 did indeed total around $144 million. However, this figure alone does not justify the conclusion that Armenia’s membership in the Eurasian Economic Union caused the country an equivalent amount of economic damage. Expert Johnny Melikyan expressed this view amid discussions surrounding figures cited by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
Speaking at a meeting of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council, Pashinyan said that in 2025 Armenia transferred around $319 million to the EAEU’s unified system of import customs duties, while receiving approximately $175 million in return. Formally, therefore, the difference amounted to about $144 million.
These figures prompted criticism of Armenia’s participation in the EAEU, particularly against the backdrop of discussions about the country’s potential European integration and trade restrictions imposed by Russia. According to Melikyan, however, assessing the situation requires taking into account the mechanism by which customs duties are distributed within the union.
Import customs duties collected at the EAEU’s external borders are transferred to a common fund and then distributed among member states according to predetermined shares. Armenia’s share is 1.22%. Russia’s share is 85.065%, Kazakhstan’s 6.955%, Belarus’s 4.860%, and Kyrgyzstan’s 1.900%.
According to the expert, this fixed share becomes problematic for Armenia during periods of sharp growth in imports from third countries. When the volume of goods passing through Armenian customs increases significantly, the country transfers substantially more customs revenue to the common fund, while the amount returned to it remains tied to the fixed 1.22% share.
At the same time, Melikyan argues that the issue should be assessed not only by comparing the amounts transferred and returned, but also by examining the origin of the additional customs revenues themselves.
In his assessment, the sharp rise in customs collections in Armenia between 2022 and 2025 was linked to the country becoming one of the important centers for parallel imports and re-exports to the EAEU market. As a result, a significant share of goods passing through Armenian customs was intended not only for domestic consumption but also for subsequent movement into the union’s common market.
This, according to the expert, raises the central question: would these additional customs revenues have been generated at all if Armenia were not an EAEU member?
Melikyan notes that before Armenia joined the union, in 2013–2014, the country’s own customs collections amounted to around $140–170 million annually. Those revenues remained entirely in Armenia’s state budget.
During the first years of EAEU membership, between 2015 and 2018, collections were approximately $140–170 million, while returned revenues totaled around $130–150 million, meaning the gap remained relatively small.
The situation changed noticeably in 2019 amid a boom in automobile imports. Customs collections rose to around $280 million, while returned revenues amounted to approximately $156 million. The negative balance reached $124 million.
In 2021, by contrast, Armenia recorded a small positive balance. Customs collections stood at around $170 million, while returned revenues totaled approximately $180 million. According to the expert, this was linked to a decline in the country’s own imports during the pandemic.
The most substantial gap emerged in 2023–2025, when customs collections increased to around $320–385 million annually, while returned revenues remained at approximately $175–185 million.
Thus, according to Melikyan, the $144 million negative balance recorded in 2025 does indeed exist in purely arithmetic terms. However, interpreting the entire amount as direct economic damage resulting from EAEU membership would be incorrect.
In his assessment, without access to the EAEU’s common market, Armenia would likely not have received a significant share of the additional cargo flows that drove customs collections to their current levels. In a scenario without the EAEU, the country would most likely have continued collecting around $180–200 million in customs duties annually, primarily from imports intended for its own domestic market.
In this sense, the current “minus” in the distribution of customs duties is also a consequence of growing re-exports through Armenia. The country receives additional revenues from increased trade flows, but because of its fixed share in the common distribution system, it does not receive back the full amount of duties collected on its territory.
Melikyan also stresses that this assessment is relevant specifically under current regional conditions. Changes in logistics routes, the unblocking of transport links, and the full opening of Armenia’s borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey could substantially alter the structure of foreign trade and, consequently, Armenia’s role as an entry point for goods into the EAEU market.
Therefore, in the expert’s view, the customs “minus” cannot be viewed merely as a simple comparison between the $319 million transferred and the $175 million received back. Behind the difference are changes in trade flows, the re-export boom of recent years, and the EAEU’s underlying model for distributing customs revenues.