Most political forces in Armenia are expected to participate in the upcoming parliamentary elections independently. This opinion was expressed by political analyst Robert Gevondyan.
According to him, recent amendments to the Electoral Code have changed the logic of political calculations, encouraging parties to run on their own rather than forming alliances. An exception, he suggests, may be the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun), which is likely to join another political force — either a project proposed by Robert Kocharyan or a party formed around the “Mer Tsevor” (“Our Way”) movement. In the case of independent participation, Dashnaktsutyun is unlikely to overcome the parliamentary threshold, Gevondyan believes.
Impact of Legal Reforms on Political Strategy
Gevondyan notes that most political forces are inclined toward independent participation because the new Electoral Code lowered the threshold for parties from 5% to 4%. In his assessment, this significantly increases the chances of entering parliament for parties running alone.
At the same time, he emphasizes that the threshold for electoral alliances has been raised to 8%, reducing the attractiveness of coalition formats. The 2021 elections, he recalls, already demonstrated that even alliances struggled to approach the required threshold. Gevondyan points out that the third political force currently represented in the National Assembly — the “I Have Honor” alliance — entered parliament not by surpassing the electoral threshold, but through a special legal mechanism.
Hidden Alliances and a New List Model
According to Gevondyan, a new “hidden alliance” model may be used in the upcoming elections. This approach involves representatives of different political forces being included in the candidate list of a single party, formally preserving a party-based format while in practice ensuring multi-party participation.
The goal of this strategy is to surpass the 4% threshold and secure parliamentary representation while avoiding the risks associated with the higher threshold imposed on formal alliances.
Opposition Tactics and Playing the “Surprise” Card
Gevondyan also draws attention to the tactics used by opposition forces. Some political players, he says, are attempting to leverage the “factor of surprise” to generate public interest and political dividends.
As an example, he cites the political force created by Samvel Karapetyan, which has announced that it will make a significant statement on February 12, promising to present a candidate for prime minister and a political vision. Although, as Gevondyan notes, it is generally clear what this statement may concern, the atmosphere of “surprise” is being used as a tool to attract additional attention and support.
Other political forces, he adds, are employing similar tactics, avoiding premature announcements.
Predictable Participation of the Ruling Party
In contrast to the opposition field, the Civil Contract party faces no such uncertainty. According to Gevondyan, the ruling party’s participation format has long been clear: it will take part in the elections independently, without forming alliances.
This, he concludes, once again highlights that the upcoming elections will be characterized primarily by individual party competition rather than broad political coalitions.