The readiness declared by the Russian side to restore certain railway sections in Armenian territory as soon as possible significantly changes the rules of the game and undermines the initial political calculations of the Armenian side. This is stated by political scientist Ara Poghosyan, analyzing the ongoing processes around regional railway communications.
“The Russian side announced that it is ready to start the restoration of these sections as soon as possible, which presumably did not meet the expectations of the Armenian authorities,” says Poghosyan.
According to him, the Armenian authorities previously hoped that the South Caucasus Railway (a subsidiary of Russian Railways) would not be able to make the necessary investments due to its difficult financial situation. In that case, the concession could be revoked, and the issue would acquire a broader — alternative political solution.
“Naturally, there was a political goal here based on the calculation that since the South Caucasus Railway has quite large debts, it will not be able to make such investments, therefore a problem will arise to revoke the concession,” explains the political scientist.
However, the readiness shown by Russia to finance and implement the restoration works now transfers the issue to a purely political field. The possibility of canceling the concession on legal grounds is exhausted, since the company declares its readiness.
Poghosyan also draws attention to the broader context. He recalls the Munich speech of the President of Azerbaijan, where Azerbaijan accused Russia of “directly targeting” the Azerbaijani embassy in Ukraine at least twice.
“To compare, one must look at what the speech of the President of Azerbaijan was like, for example, in Munich,” he notes.
According to the political scientist’s assessment, the problems surrounding the restoration of railway sections reflect not only the Armenian side’s interest. Azerbaijani, Turkish, and American interests are also involved here — all of them are aimed at Russia losing its presence in this segment.
“I believe that not only the Armenian side is interested, but also the Azerbaijani, Turkish, and American sides aim for the Russian side not to have a presence here,” emphasizes Ara Poghosyan.
Thus, what initially seemed like a technical or financial issue is turning into an important episode in the struggle for regional influence, where preserving Russian presence becomes a key issue.
Recall that Pashinyan suggested that Russia sell the concession management rights to some country that has friendly relations with both Armenia and the Russian Federation (for example, Kazakhstan, UAE, Qatar). In his opinion, the Russian presence creates “competitive losses” for Armenia, especially in the context of the TRIPP initiative, where some forces suggest bypassing Armenia precisely because of Russian management.