U.S. President Donald Trump has stated that he does not rule out the possibility of a ground invasion of Iran but simultaneously emphasized that he sees no need for it at this stage. Against this backdrop, the question becomes particularly relevant: is a ground invasion scenario actually being considered, or is it primarily a political and military pressure tool?
The Likelihood of a Ground Invasion Is Extremely Low
According to Iranian political analyst Pouya Hosseini, the likelihood that the U.S. will carry out a ground invasion against Iran—or a large-scale, long-term war in general—is extremely low. He argues that such a development would not be accepted by either the American public or Congress.
Hosseini recalls that during his election campaign, Donald Trump promised to end ongoing wars worldwide and not involve the U.S. in new military conflicts. According to him, if the focus is specifically on ground military operations, they would inevitably result in significant human losses, which would be unacceptable to American society.
Internal Calculations and External Statements
The analyst believes that Washington’s tough statements are primarily aimed at influencing strategic calculations within Iran. In his assessment, the U.S. is trying to create the perception that it is ready for a prolonged war in order to pressure Iranian decision-makers.
However, in reality, according to Hosseini, even if military action occurs, it is likely to be a short-term operation with a rapid outcome and a demonstrative victory effect. This would allow Washington to present itself as the strongest and most capable power in the world, without taking on the burden of a prolonged war.
Regional Resource Limitations
The Iranian analyst also emphasizes that U.S. military resources in the region are limited. He notes that Iran is operating on its own territory within its geographic and strategic environment, whereas U.S. forces are “outsiders” in the region.
Hosseini points out that Iran is already targeting U.S. military facilities in the region, and under these conditions, the United States has limited capability to wage an effective long-term war against Iran.
Overall, according to the Iranian expert, this is more of a psychological and political pressure tool than a genuine preparation for a long-term war.