Following the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, questions are actively circulating about who could become the country’s next leader and how internal political processes might develop. Currently, several potential candidates’ names are being mentioned in the press, though none have been officially confirmed yet. At the same time, statements from the United States are further escalating the situation—in some American statements, it is noted that whoever becomes the next leader could meet the same fate.
This raises new questions: is Washington’s goal to “decapitate” Iran’s military-political leadership in order to weaken the state, or is the calculation that processes will unfold from within the country itself? The internal political situation in Iran and possible scenarios have been analyzed by Iran expert Zhanna Vardanyan.
What Does Washington Want?
According to the Iran expert’s assessment, the main question at this stage remains the ultimate goal. Recently, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he would prefer the next leader of Iran to be elected from within the country itself. This statement came in the context of discussions about Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s last Shah.
According to Vardanyan, Trump spoke about wanting to see a more moderate figure. However, it is still unclear whether this refers to an actor operating within the current system or to the possible formation of a different political system.
It is precisely this uncertainty that leaves the main question open: if a leader is elected whom the U.S. does not accept, is it possible that similar actions could be repeated against him as well?
The System Is Still Functioning
The Iran expert notes that even under such pressure, Iran’s state system continues to operate. A temporary leadership council has now been formed, which is governing the country until the election of a new leader.
This body includes influential figures who play an active role in the current situation. Among them is Ali Larijani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.
According to Vardanyan’s assessment, at this moment the system continues to maintain its stability. However, if a new leader cannot be elected for a prolonged period, internal political tensions could arise between various power structures and institutions. In that case, a struggle for power could begin, creating new crisis situations.
According to her, the possible scenarios for developments are quite diverse, and each scenario could have its own sub-scenarios. At present, however, Iran’s system is still resisting the created situation.
The Risk of War Expansion
Vardanyan also addressed regional security issues. According to her, Iran continues to control the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, through which more than 20 percent of the world’s oil passes. This circumstance keeps an important strategic lever in Iran’s hands.
At the same time, Iran is striking American military bases in the Middle East. As a result of these actions, civilian infrastructure could also be damaged.
According to the Iran expert, there is a serious danger that the conflict could take on broader proportions if the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf join the actions of the U.S. and Israel against Iran. Statements have already been made in the past suggesting that new countries could join such a coalition, although at this moment there is no official new information on this.
Iran’s Calculation
According to Vardanyan, there is one strategic calculation in Iran’s actions. By targeting certain countries in the region, Tehran is attempting to exert pressure on the U.S. and Israel through them, forcing them to stop the war.
In this way, Iran is trying to demonstrate what price a war against it could carry and to raise the cost of this conflict for its adversaries.
In her assessment, Tehran is currently employing almost all the levers at its disposal, attempting to maximize the military-political impact of the conflict in the region.