Although major political shifts traditionally occur in the final stage of the campaign, it is already possible to outline the approximate balance of forces. This is noted by political strategist Karen Kocharyan.
In his assessment, the ruling authorities, led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, remain the central player. At the same time, none of the forces operating alongside the власти or within its “satellite” field currently demonstrates the resources or support needed to create real competition within the ruling camp.
At the same time, several key centers stand out within the opposition field. Kocharyan identifies “Strong Armenia,” the Armenia Alliance, and “Prosperous Armenia” as actors that could theoretically compete with the authorities. He also does not rule out the emergence of new political projects, especially in the final weeks before the elections, when new actors often appear aiming to secure at least a minimal result.
The participation of the Armenian National Congress may also prove significant. According to Kocharyan, if this force manages to build an effective campaign and present an alternative “peace agenda” distinct from that of the власти, it could surpass the electoral threshold. He notes that the threshold currently stands at 4%, which theoretically expands opportunities for smaller parties.
The strategist also highlights an important segment of voters — those who are “against everyone.” According to him, these citizens usually do not participate in elections, meaning their potential is not reflected in the results. However, if mechanisms are found to mobilize them, this group could gain a measurable share and even pass the electoral threshold.
Another key issue is the “fragmentation” of votes. Kocharyan does not exclude that some political forces may enter the race, use the campaign to increase visibility and criticize the власти, and then withdraw toward the final stage, realizing they cannot pass the threshold. In his view, this can be a calculated strategy aimed at preventing vote loss within the opposition.
Overall, Kocharyan emphasizes that in these elections the decisive factor may be not so much the resources of traditional political forces, but the level of voter participation.