The preliminary peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan will not be signed and will never come into force. This opinion was expressed by Ara Papyan, head of the Modus Vivendi research center.
“Aliyev is not moving toward peace. I have said it many times and I repeat it again now: there will be no peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan,” Papyan stressed.
“Peace” as a political product
According to him, during the election period, Aliyev is creating an opportunity for Նիկոլ Փաշինյան to “sell peace” to voters. “The main product being offered to society is this so-called ‘peace.’ Naturally, until June there will not only be no war, but the release of prisoners is also highly likely,” he noted.
However, after the elections, if Nikol Pashinyan is re-elected, Aliyev will harden his positions and demand the fulfillment of all verbal agreements.
“At that point, they will present clear demands — the return of 300,000 Azerbaijanis, the restoration of mosques, the transfer of ‘enclaves,’ and so on. In other words, Aliyev before June 7 and after June 7 are two different Aliyevs,” Papyan said.
The enclave issue and strategic calculations
Papyan also addressed the issue of the “enclaves.” According to him, Azerbaijan is trying to push territorial issues that have strategic importance for Armenia.
He stated that Baku is demanding eight villages, presenting them as enclaves. “They say this belongs to us, give it back, and we will return Artsvashen to you,” he described Azerbaijan’s approach.
However, according to Papyan, there is a major difference between these territories. The eight villages are located along strategic roads and therefore have completely different value.
Papyan claims that Ilham Aliyev is prepared to ensure the settlement of these territories at any cost. According to him, this also involves financial incentives.
“There is information that people may even be released from prisons in order to populate these territories. They are told: instead of serving 10 years in prison, go live in Kyarki for five years and you will also be paid for it,” he stated.