Israel’s recognition of the Armenian Genocide should be viewed not only through the lens of historical politics, but also within the context of rapidly escalating tensions between Israel and Turkey. This opinion was expressed by military expert Hayk Nahapetyan.
According to his assessment, relations between Israel and Turkey have entered a period of multi-layered and systemic confrontation affecting several regional theaters simultaneously.
Several Major Areas of Conflict Exist Between Israel and Turkey
According to Nahapetyan, one of the primary areas of disagreement between the two countries concerns Syria.
The expert argues that Israel is interested in maintaining a relatively weak Syria where it can preserve significant influence, whereas Turkey seeks to establish a stable and strong administration under its own sphere of influence.
He also notes that Israel supports Syrian Druze communities and Kurdish forces, while Ankara perceives the strengthening of these groups as a direct challenge to Turkish national security.
“Israel is doing everything possible to ensure that the Kurdish factor remains strong and under its influence, while for Turkey this is one of the key national security issues,” the expert says.
Another important source of disagreement, according to Nahapetyan, is Gaza. He believes that Turkey’s increased activity on the Palestinian issue has further deepened tensions with Israel.
Recognition of the Armenian Genocide May Signal a New Phase of Pressure on Turkey
According to the military expert, if the Israeli government’s decision is also approved by the Knesset, this would indicate that Israeli-Turkish tensions have entered a qualitatively new phase.
“If the Knesset also recognizes the Armenian Genocide, this will no longer be merely a political statement, but a much more serious instrument of pressure against Turkey,” Nahapetyan argues.
He believes that such developments could also have important consequences for Azerbaijan, where Israel maintains significant military, intelligence, and technological influence.
Turkey May Seek to Reduce Israel’s Presence in Azerbaijan
According to the expert, if tensions between Israel and Turkey continue to deepen, Ankara may attempt to gradually reduce or even eliminate Israel’s influence in Azerbaijan.
“If Israeli-Turkish contradictions continue to intensify, I cannot rule out the possibility that Turkey will try to gradually push Israel out of Azerbaijan. In that case, Pakistan, which maintains close military and political cooperation with Turkey, could potentially replace Israel,” Nahapetyan says.
He notes that different spheres of influence within Azerbaijan are currently distributed among several external partners.
Azerbaijan’s Strategic Sectors Are Divided Among Several Foreign Actors
According to Nahapetyan, Turkey’s Third Field Army exerts considerable influence over the activities of Azerbaijan’s General Staff.
At the same time, Israel plays an important role in intelligence cooperation, drone production, and several sectors of Azerbaijan’s defense industry.
“In the economic and energy sectors, the United Kingdom also maintains substantial influence,” the expert notes.
In his view, this distribution of influence currently forms the basis of Azerbaijan’s strategic balance among external actors.
Israel May Seek New Regional Platforms if Its Presence in Azerbaijan Declines
The military expert believes that if Israel’s position in Azerbaijan weakens, Tel Aviv will be forced to search for alternative regional platforms in order to preserve its intelligence and strategic capabilities.
“If Israel is pushed out of Azerbaijan, the question will arise as to where its intelligence infrastructure and strategic capabilities will be relocated. In this context, Armenia itself may also come to attract Israel’s attention,” Nahapetyan concludes.