A potential restriction on diesel fuel exports from Russia could create serious risks for Armenia’s energy security. This was stated by political scientist Vahe Davtyan, commenting on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statement regarding the likelihood of introducing such measures.
According to the expert, Armenia remains highly dependent on Russian diesel fuel supplies. Russia accounts for about 60–70% of all diesel imported into the country, while the republic’s annual consumption of petroleum products stands at approximately 500,000 tons.
Under these conditions, even a temporary export restriction could lead to a noticeable increase in domestic prices. This would primarily affect agriculture, the transport sector, and logistics, where diesel fuel remains the main energy source.
Davtyan also points out that Armenia’s membership in the Eurasian Economic Union does not guarantee the preservation of previous supply conditions. He recalls that Russia already applies special regulatory mechanisms for trading petroleum products with individual EAEU partners. Specifically, a special regime is in place in relations with Kazakhstan, aimed at protecting the Russian domestic market. According to the political scientist, this precedent indicates that, if necessary, Moscow could extend export restrictions to other states within the union as well.
Against the backdrop of potential risks, the topic of fuel supply diversification becomes urgent once again. However, the expert believes that this issue must be discussed based on objective economic opportunities rather than political declarations.
For instance, the European direction remains the most expensive option. Deliveries require complex logistics across the Black Sea, which inevitably increases the cost of fuel for the end consumer. Furthermore, since 2022, the European petroleum products market has been undergoing a large-scale restructuring of supply chains itself.
The second most significant supplier of petroleum products to Armenia is Iran. According to Davtyan’s data, Iran accounted for about 6% of Armenian imports in 2025. However, recent events in the Middle East have negatively impacted the Iranian oil refining industry. Military escalation caused damage to the country’s energy infrastructure, which, in the political scientist’s opinion, limits Iran’s capacity to increase export supplies.
The expert does not view Azerbaijan as a viable full-fledged alternative either. According to him, since the end of last year, about 20,000 tons of petroleum products, including diesel fuel, have been supplied to Armenia, whereas the annual demand of the Armenian market is around 500,000 tons. In addition, Azerbaijan’s only oil refinery has limited production capacities and regularly shuts down for maintenance and modernization. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan itself imports certain types of petroleum products, including gasoline, from Russia and European countries.
According to Vahe Davtyan’s assessment, the key problem today is no longer about finding new suppliers, but rather about the ability to find a source that can provide Armenia with comparable volumes of fuel at an acceptable price.
“As of today, none of the potential directions can replace Russian supplies, neither in terms of scale nor economic efficiency,” the political scientist emphasized.
According to him, this is an issue not only of national energy security but also of maintaining macroeconomic stability, as disruptions in diesel fuel supplies could impact several key sectors of the Armenian economy simultaneously.