The future of the TRIPP project depends primarily not on Armenia’s decisions but on the course of international developments, according to political commentator Hakob Badalyan.
He argues that the project’s fate will be shaped by US-Iran relations, ties between Russia and the United States, and the trajectory of US-China competition.
In this context, Badalyan believes Armenia is acting not as an independent decision-maker but as a party implementing the logic imposed by the external environment.
“Essentially, whatever logic is dictated by the external environment, Armenia will probably be prepared to implement it. Nikol Pashinyan expressed that readiness long ago, not only regarding TRIPP but in the broader context of Armenia’s state policy. TRIPP is simply one manifestation of that approach,” he said.
Armenia Is Prepared to Follow the Path Set by the Winner
According to the analyst, Armenia’s current policy can be simplified as an attempt to adapt to the changing geopolitical balance of power.
“We are prepared to follow the path laid out by whichever actor gains the advantage or, so to speak, emerges as the winner from geopolitical developments. TRIPP, as one of the key geopolitical projects, will not be an exception,” Badalyan said.
For this reason, he argues, Armenia is more of an executor than an initiator in the process.
“I repeat that Armenia is acting here more as an executor than as a party presenting its own decision. We need to understand within what framework of implementation Armenia is beginning the domestic ratification process,” he noted.
Ratification May Be a Way to Gain Time
At the same time, Badalyan does not rule out the possibility that the government is using the ratification process to delay implementation and gain time while assessing the direction of international developments.
“Perhaps Nikol Pashinyan is trying to gain some time to understand where geopolitical processes are heading, under what logic and with what trends. In that case, domestic ratification may be Armenia’s decision, but it does not produce an immediate result. It is a process that will take months, and during that period Armenia may see an opportunity to maneuver and buy time,” he said.
According to Badalyan, this period could be used to evaluate developments in several key areas, including the Russia-Ukraine war and events surrounding Iran.
There Is Still No Clear End to the Wider Conflicts
The political commentator currently sees no signs that would justify expectations of an imminent end to international conflicts.
He acknowledges that decisions may soon be taken on certain fronts or that individual wars could end, but argues that the overall picture points in a different direction.
“Despite the efforts of various actors, including on the Russian front, the imminent end of this expanding global war is not yet visible. The situation around Iran also shows that even when it appears that an agreement on stability has been reached, it lasts only one or two weeks before the sides again resort to military instruments,” Badalyan said.
Military Actions Around Iran May Be Managing Larger Risks
Discussing developments around Iran, Badalyan said he would not yet describe the war against the country as having resumed at full scale.
“It is possible that the United States and Iran are using military tools to manage larger risks. These reciprocal strikes may, in a conditional sense, be a tactical method for controlling broader threats. But if the parties are forced to manage the situation in this way, that already demonstrates that the global environment remains highly turbulent,” he explained.
In his assessment, the current trends point not toward reduced tensions but toward further escalation.
A Possible Russia-Europe Clash Would Also Affect the Caucasus
Badalyan also considers the possibility of a direct military confrontation between Russia and Europe to be a crucial issue.
“A highly relevant question today is whether there will be a direct Russia-Europe confrontation. In other words, will Russia decide to strike European territory directly? We see Europe consistently increasing tensions on the Ukrainian front, probably calculating that Russia will agree to negotiate on European terms before deciding to attack them,” he said.
According to the commentator, escalation on this front would inevitably affect other regions.
“At least in this direction, we can see the situation moving toward escalation. That escalation will spread its ‘metastases’ to developments elsewhere, including the Caucasus and the situation around Iran, which will in turn have an indirect impact on the South Caucasus,” Hakob Badalyan concluded.