Azerbaijan is attempting to pursue a multi-vector policy while preserving relations with both Russia and the United States. According to political science professor Nerses Kopalyan, Baku’s strategy is based on the assumption that the region’s new balance of power has not yet fully taken shape and that Russia may attempt to restore its influence in the South Caucasus.
“Azerbaijan will try to revive its multi-vector policy and normalize relations with Russia, while also saying: these are our conditions. Within these boundaries, we are prepared to restore relations,” Kopalyan said.
According to him, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev is using the same logic to send a message to Washington, demonstrating that Baku is prepared to cooperate with the United States and meet American demands in order to preserve strategic ties.
Baku Is Uncertain About the Durability of the US Presence
Kopalyan argues that Azerbaijan’s approach reflects the continuing uncertainty surrounding the region.
Baku is not convinced that growing US involvement in the South Caucasus and the emerging regional system will become fully consolidated in the coming years.
“They are not convinced that the United States’ regional presence and this new transitional phase will be consolidated within five years. They are also considering the possibility that Russia could return as an active participant in regional developments,” Kopalyan said.
According to him, this calculation is forcing Azerbaijan to maintain a flexible policy without closing off any direction.
“If Russia returns, Azerbaijan must have mechanisms for cooperating with it. If that does not happen, it is already developing strong relations with the United States,” he noted.
The Appointment of the TRIPP Fund Chairman Surprised Baku
Addressing the TRIPP project, Kopalyan said there are serious concerns in Azerbaijan about the initiative’s future development.
According to him, the appointment of the TRIPP fund’s chairman came as a surprise to Baku.
“They note in Baku that this individual has investments in Armenia’s telecommunications sector and has also made new investments in gold mining. From their perspective, this means Armenia is more important to him than Azerbaijan,” Kopalyan said.
He added that Baku does not rule out the possibility that the individuals and institutions involved in managing the project may give Armenia a larger role.
According to Kopalyan, Azerbaijani experts and analytical centers have already begun discussing the issue.
“They say Armenia now possesses instruments of influence that it did not have before. That is worrying for Aliyev,” he stated.
The Main Decision-Making Center Is in Washington
Kopalyan says Aliyev previously believed that Azerbaijan’s influence and regional position would allow him to dictate how the TRIPP project should be implemented.
Baku now understands, however, that the principal decision-making center is located in Washington and that Armenia may receive a more substantial role in the process.
In the analyst’s assessment, this fundamentally changes Azerbaijan’s position because Baku no longer possesses the level of influence over the project that it originally expected.
“Azerbaijan is genuinely concerned because it no longer has the influence it intended to exercise over this process,” Kopalyan said.
The Project’s Terms Better Reflect Armenia’s Demands
The political scientist believes the TRIPP agreement, the related memoranda, the management structure and the mechanisms currently under discussion correspond more closely to Armenia’s demands than to the conditions previously advanced by Ilham Aliyev.
“The TRIPP agreement, the memoranda, the management structure and all the issues being discussed today are much more consistent with Armenia’s demands than with the demands Aliyev presented before the August 8 peace summit,” Kopalyan said.
In his view, the prospect of Armenia gaining greater influence and Baku losing the ability to determine the project’s parameters independently is the Azerbaijani leadership’s principal concern.