Recent remarks by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan that Russia’s restrictions on Armenian exports contradict both bilateral agreements and the regulations of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) have been interpreted by several experts as a restrained signal to Moscow. In their view, such language may indicate the beginning of a new stage in Armenia-Russia relations.
According to political analyst Robert Gevondyan, a similar situation emerged in 2022, when the Armenian authorities criticized the actions of both Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), arguing that they contradicted the commitments undertaken within those frameworks.
“That discussion was followed by what everyone remembers: Armenia froze its participation in the CSTO,” Gevondyan said.
A Similar Scenario Could Repeat
According to the expert, many factors influenced that process, but it is important that developments began after similar political statements.
“What is happening today in Armenia-Russia relations, together with Russia’s attempts to deepen the crisis, could produce similar consequences. The continued restrictions imposed on Armenian goods represent another step toward escalating the crisis,” he said.
The EAEU Is a Different Case
At the same time, Gevondyan stressed that the situation with the EAEU differs from that of the CSTO because Armenia cannot formally remain a member while effectively refusing to participate.
“The union operates under a common customs regime, includes financial arrangements and covers numerous areas where it is impossible to remain a member on paper while not participating in practice,” he explained.
According to Gevondyan, if the existing problems remain unresolved, Armenia could eventually reach a point where leaving the EAEU becomes unavoidable.
“Pashinyan hinted that if the current situation is not resolved, it could mark the beginning of the end for Armenia’s participation in the EAEU. In my opinion, this refers not to the collapse of the union itself but to a scenario in which Armenia is no longer part of it,” he said.
Withdrawal Cannot Happen Overnight
The expert emphasized that such a process cannot occur in a single day.
“It will not happen that we wake up one morning and discover that Armenia is no longer in the EAEU. The opposite once happened — one day we woke up and found that Armenia had already joined what was then the Customs Union. Over time, however, as happened with the CSTO, the current situation could lead to developments that ultimately separate Armenia from the EAEU,” Gevondyan said.
Economic Conditions Must Come First
In Gevondyan’s view, it would be preferable for such a decision to be made on Armenia’s own initiative. However, this requires the necessary economic foundations.
“The diversification process must produce much stronger results. Armenia needs broader opportunities to protect its own economic interests, including outside the framework of its relations with Russia. That will require time,” he said.
The expert added that, in his assessment, Armenia’s future outside the EAEU has already become a political choice.
“I believe the Armenian people have already made up their minds that one day Armenia will no longer be part of the EAEU. But that day has not yet come,” Robert Gevondyan concluded.