Serious substantive progress in the peace process should not be expected from the meeting between Armenian and Azerbaijani Foreign Ministers Ararat Mirzoyan and Jeyhun Bayramov in New York, according to regional affairs expert Armen Petrosyan.
According to him, the priority at this stage is not to reach new agreements but to overcome the problematic situation that has emerged recently and return the bilateral process to its previous manageable course.
Petrosyan noted that although the Armenia-Azerbaijan normalization process has remained relatively manageable for more than a year, it would be wrong to expect it to proceed smoothly from now on.
“We must take into account that this process will not proceed entirely smoothly. This is due to the deep-rooted problems that have existed between the two peoples for decades, even for more than a century, and, since the 1990s, between the two states as well,” he said.
According to the expert, particular attention should be paid to the perceptions that developed on the Azerbaijani side following the 2020 war. Under these circumstances, he argues, moving very quickly into a constructive phase would not correspond to objective reality.
“We must understand that the process of establishing and maintaining normal relations with Azerbaijan and, in general, with our neighboring Turkic states will be very difficult,” Petrosyan said.
Azerbaijan is not changing its rhetoric
According to the expert, particular attention should be paid to the fact that the Azerbaijani side does not want to step back from the tone with which the latest period of tension began.
“The Azerbaijani side continues at the same pace and, naturally, is advancing its propaganda agenda based on its own propaganda narratives,” he said.
Petrosyan believes such developments must constantly be taken into account in the normalization process with Azerbaijan. According to him, various crises can naturally arise even between partners with strategic relations, and therefore failing to anticipate such problems would be “simply naive.”
In this context, he emphasized the importance of the Mirzoyan-Bayramov meeting, expressing hope that it would help ease the situation to some extent.
Rapid results on the peace agreement or border opening should not be expected
Petrosyan stressed that under the current circumstances there are no grounds to expect rapid and significant progress either in the process of signing the peace agreement or on the opening of borders.
“Having such expectations would naturally be naive. The sides have not yet reached a stage in the normalization process that would allow for such expectations,” he said.
At the same time, according to the expert, processes in various areas of bilateral relations have not stopped. He pointed to continuing trade relations and contacts taking place at a non-public level.
Petrosyan also noted that National Assembly Speaker Alen Simonyan has said that he remains in contact with Hikmet Hajiyev, deputy head of the Azerbaijani presidential administration.
TRIPP and delimitation processes continue
According to the expert, work in specific areas is continuing despite the current informational and political tensions.
He highlighted the implementation of TRIPP, noting that it is important for both countries and that the sides regularly address the issue. According to him, discussions on the subject have also taken place in New York with the participation of the two countries’ foreign ministers.
Contacts concerning the services sector are also continuing, while certain steps are expected in the delimitation process, although the sides have yet to make public statements on them.
“In other words, the process is continuing. I repeat, this propaganda noise is simply creating a certain background of tension which, I believe, is manageable, and we hope that the situation will be smoothed out during the foreign ministers’ negotiations,” Armen Petrosyan concluded.