One of Azerbaijan’s main objectives is to create additional leverage over Syunik through the transport connection envisaged under the TRIPP project, according to political analyst Gor Abrahamyan. He argues that Baku is seeking to make Armenia dependent on a conglomeration of regional states and gradually neutralize Armenia’s political agency.
For Azerbaijan, TRIPP Is a Means of Securing the Route
According to Abrahamyan, Azerbaijan seeks to reduce the application of Armenian law within the TRIPP framework, as well as the principles of Armenia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, to mere formalities.
“For Azerbaijan, the American initiative — TRIPP — has been merely a means of securing this route,” he said.
In the analyst’s view, now that the United States is involved in implementing the route, Baku is also attempting to use its relations with Washington to achieve its own objectives.
At the same time, Abrahamyan believes Azerbaijan will seek to return regional processes to the previous “3+2” logic, under which the role of the United States would gradually diminish while Russian-Azerbaijani-Turkish interaction would once again become dominant in the region.
In that scenario, he argues, the geopolitical significance of the route for the United States as part of a broader global transport corridor would decline. Regional processes could then return to the logic that, according to him, was originally embedded in the November 9, 2020 statement.
In this context, Abrahamyan does not consider the recent rapprochement between Russia and Azerbaijan, as well as reciprocal steps aimed at resolving various problems, to be coincidental.
Armenia’s Agency Should Be Strengthened Through Alternatives
The analyst argues that if Azerbaijan’s policy is aimed at neutralizing Armenia’s political agency, Armenia’s strategic policy should move in the opposite direction by giving that agency substantive meaning.
To achieve this, he says, Armenia needs to create alternatives and shape regional relations in a way that interconnects the interests of various major powers, particularly their economic interests.
“There should be such a combination of the interests of major powers in the region — and it is very important that these are economic interests — that any future military escalation, or even the possibility of such escalation, is excluded,” Abrahamyan said.
According to him, Armenia’s security formula should be built on precisely this logic.
Finding a New Patron Is Not a Solution
Abrahamyan considers it unrealistic to assume that Armenia can simply find another patron after moving away from Russian influence, whether that patron is the United States, Iran, or China.
According to him, the issue is not replacing one patron with another but creating conditions under which Armenia is not dependent on any single center of power.
“For us, it is not essential which country is the patron, so to speak, if we are talking about a single patron, because when actors or personalities change — and this is a rule of realpolitik — the essence does not change,” he said.
Instead, the analyst argues, Armenia should seek to attract investment and capital that would give different international actors their own economic interests to protect.
Such interconnectedness, in his assessment, could indirectly create additional security guarantees for Armenia.
The U.S. Presence Should Be Strengthened
According to Abrahamyan, Armenia and Azerbaijan are currently engaged in a tactical struggle, one important dimension of which concerns strengthening the role of the United States in the region.
He believes U.S. involvement should be viewed not only in direct terms but also symbolically. As an example, he points to the creation of an artificial intelligence factory, which, in his assessment, raises Armenia’s technological status.
The analyst also addressed the fund being formed for TRIPP, saying its volume has reached around $400 million and, in his view, should increase further.
However, he believes that financial resources alone will not be sufficient to resolve the issue.
Resolving the Railway Issue Is Crucial for Armenia
Abrahamyan believes that one of Armenia’s most important challenges is resolving the issue of railway connectivity.
“We have a very important problem. I do not know whether it can be solved specifically through the United States or in some other way, but we urgently need to resolve the railway issue, and we must find a way to do so,” he said.
He noted that one possible solution could involve a compensation mechanism, recalling that such an idea has already been raised by Russia, including in discussions involving potentially substantial compensation.
According to Abrahamyan, such steps would allow Armenia not only to counter the narratives advanced by Azerbaijan but also to establish a system of external deterrence that would increase the cost of potential aggressive actions for Baku.
“External deterrence mechanisms against Azerbaijan must become so strong and so relevant that Azerbaijan never dares to put the narratives it advances into practice,” the political analyst emphasized.