Politically, Armenia has found itself on the dividing line of the Russia-West confrontation, American studies expert Suren Sargsyan said.
In his assessment, competition between Russia and the West is not a new phenomenon. It existed during the periods of both Tsarist Russia and the Soviet Union and continued after the collapse of the USSR.
Today, however, the situation differs significantly from previous periods.
According to Sargsyan, Russia and the West are no longer simply competitors but perceive one another as enemies.
As the clearest manifestation of this, he points to the war in Ukraine, which, in his assessment, is effectively a large-scale confrontation between Russia and the collective West.
It Is Becoming Harder for Armenia to Avoid Making a Choice
Under these circumstances, it is becoming increasingly difficult for Armenia to maintain neutrality or political balance.
According to Sargsyan, the only way to avoid this situation in the long term is ultimately to make a clear choice in favor of either Russia or the West.
“At the moment, Armenia seems to have adopted an unclear political line, because on the one hand it is trying to avoid making a choice, while on the other hand there is pressure from every possible side for that choice to finally be made,” the American studies expert said.
In his assessment, this foreign policy pressure also has a direct impact on Armenia’s domestic political processes.
In the case of small states, foreign policy is often more decisive for domestic life, and Armenia is no exception.
According to Sargsyan, anti-Russian statements and calls for European integration have frequently been heard in Armenia recently, but Yerevan has so far taken no concrete step directed against Russia’s vital interests.
At the same time, in his assessment, Armenia’s anti-Russian political rhetoric is to some extent “marketable” in Europe.
Although not to the same extent as in the cases of Georgia or Ukraine in the past, this approach produces noticeable results at the level of statements and political discourse.
US and EU Approaches Toward Russia Are Not Identical
According to Sargsyan, there are certain differences between the confrontation involving Russia and the United States and that involving Russia and the European Union.
He notes that Russia is no longer the number-one competitor for the United States.
Washington’s main strategic competitor is China, while Russia is viewed as a matter of secondary importance.
In Sargsyan’s assessment, the international security architecture formed after World War II no longer corresponds to US interests.
That system was created primarily according to the logic of containing the Soviet Union, while the United States now sees China in the role once occupied by the USSR.
According to the American studies expert, the difference between US and EU approaches toward Armenia is also driven by different objectives.
The European Union is interested in seeing Armenia adopt a more anti-Russian position, while the main goal of the United States is to secure its own influence and strategic presence in the region.
TRIPP as Part of the US Regional Presence
According to Sargsyan, one important component of that strategy is the TRIPP project, which he views as part of a broader American geopolitical initiative.
In his assessment, Washington views Armenia’s current government as the political force capable of ensuring a US strategic presence in the region.
At the same time, the American studies expert notes that the success of this process largely depends not only on Armenia’s actions but also on external factors.
One particular issue, according to him, concerns infrastructure placed under Russian concession management, including the railway.
To resolve this issue, the Armenian side will have to negotiate with Russia.
Another important factor is Iran’s position.
According to Sargsyan, TRIPP could provide the United States with a strategic presence geographically very close to the Iranian border, something that naturally cannot but concern Tehran.
Thus, the new situation emerging around Armenia is shaped not only by Yerevan-Moscow or Yerevan-West relations.
Armenia is also affected by US-Russia, US-China and US-Iran tensions, and according to Sargsyan, it is precisely the combination of these external factors that significantly limits Armenia’s room for maneuver.