Russia is pursuing a long-term and strategic policy toward Armenia, but the calculations underlying that policy are ineffective, political scientist Gurgen Simonyan said.
According to Simonyan, Russia’s strategy toward the region began taking shape as early as 2010.
In the context of the three South Caucasus countries, Armenia has never occupied the top position in Russia’s priorities.
Azerbaijan has consistently ranked first, followed by Georgia, while Armenia has been third on Russia’s scale of importance.
He notes that in its relations with Azerbaijan, Moscow has attached importance not only to the country’s infrastructure capabilities and territorial accessibility but also to its geographical and ethnic characteristics.
Armenia as a Hostile State
According to the political scientist, the current deterioration in Armenian-Russian relations is not merely a temporary political problem or a “sentimental” crisis in relations, but rather a manifestation of policies pursued over many years.
In Simonyan’s assessment, Moscow does not view Armenia as a friendly state.
Moreover, statements made by Russian Foreign Ministry officials portray Armenia as a “state hostile toward Russia.”
“For the Russian Federation’s current position toward the Republic of Armenia to change, the strategy they have adopted and promoted must change,” he stressed.
According to Simonyan, Armenia should not wait for possible Russian pressure or blackmail to reach a certain point, but should make independent political decisions and, through its own actions, force a change in the attitude toward it.
Armenia Should Not Wait for Russian Pressure
The political scientist believes Armenia’s main objective should be to pursue a policy demonstrating that the strategy adopted by Russia since 2010 has not only failed to produce results but may also harm Russia’s own interests.
In this context, he considers it necessary for Armenia to withdraw from the CSTO and the Eurasian Economic Union without waiting for possible pressure or ultimatums from Moscow.
Simonyan also proposes revising the regulations governing the activities of Russian media outlets in Armenia, arguing that all Russian media contributing to the spread of destabilizing policies should be removed from Armenia’s multiplex.
In addition, he stresses the importance of restoring Armenian control over strategic infrastructure.
In particular, he refers to the South Caucasus Railway, pipeline infrastructure, and the nuclear energy sector.
In his view, Armenia should also seek to restore control over strategically important institutions and intellectual capital.
According to Simonyan, only through such a consistent and independent policy will it be possible to change Russia’s attitude toward Armenia and establish a new strategic foundation for bilateral relations.