The Armenia-Azerbaijan enclave issue should be resolved in a way that avoids the displacement of residents. Political commentator Boris Navasardyan warns that any other scenario could increase domestic and social tensions in Armenia, particularly over Tigranashen.
“I expect tensions to intensify if maintaining the status quo is not ultimately chosen as the solution to the enclave issue. Any other scenario or development will entail serious escalation,” Navasardyan said.
According to him, signs of this process can already be observed in the case of Tigranashen. In his assessment, however, the renewed focus on the enclave issue does not necessarily have to be deliberately initiated by anyone.
“In the case of Tigranashen, we are already seeing signs of this process. ‘Strong Armenia’ is already moving in that direction, and the issue does not necessarily need someone to activate it. It is evident that it could cause the domestic political situation to escalate,” the political commentator noted.
Population Displacement Could Create New Social Tensions
Navasardyan believes that if the Armenian and Azerbaijani authorities have reached an understanding on this issue, their immediate priority should be to find a legal basis for preserving the existing situation.
“If Armenia and Azerbaijan have an understanding on these issues, they should now concentrate first and foremost on finding a legal basis for changing nothing,” he said.
According to Navasardyan, by “changing nothing,” he primarily means ruling out the displacement of the population.
“Population displacement will always create social and public tensions,” Navasardyan emphasized.
He said that if territorial discrepancies existed, a solution could be found on another section of the border where the issue did not have such fundamental significance.
Changing the Residents’ Environment Could Have the Most Complicated Consequences
According to Navasardyan, the most sensitive problem is not the technical settlement of territorial discrepancies but removing residents from their social and economic environment.
“Anything involving residents, their socioeconomic environment and the functioning of that environment is highly complicated,” he said.
The political commentator believes that both Yerevan and Baku should have an adequate understanding of the possible consequences of such decisions.
“I believe that both Baku and Yerevan have sufficient life experience to understand this,” Navasardyan noted.
According to him, if the parties recognize the risks but make no attempt to find a solution that excludes population displacement, this could indicate a highly negative situation.
“If they understand all this but still do not pursue the optimal solution, it means their willingness to find the best solution is insufficient,” he concluded.