The turbulent political summer in Armenia has once again raised the question: is a real alternative to the current government possible? The answer seems to lie in the political initiative announced by Russian-Armenian businessman Samvel Karapetyan, who, while under arrest, declared the creation of a “fundamentally new force” and the consolidation of the opposition around it.
Replacing the “Holy Struggle” initiative led by Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan, Armenia’s socio-political arena, according to local analysts, may see the emergence of a far more powerful coalition—one with ambitions to influence the parliamentary elections scheduled for 2026.
Samvel Karapetyan cannot formally assume the role of political leader due to his foreign citizenship. Names being discussed in expert circles include his brother, Karen Karapetyan, and former Armenian Prime Minister Karen V. Karapetyan.
Karen Karapetyan, Samvel’s brother, lacks political charisma and significant public influence. If he were nominated, Samvel Karapetyan’s own image would become central, potentially raising associations with “Russia’s shadow governance” and casting doubt on his independence.
Karen V. Karapetyan appears to be a more promising candidate. He is charismatic, educated, and perceived as a “sensible technocrat,” capable of attracting the neutral segment of the electorate. However, his past includes working in Serzh Sargsyan’s government and familial ties to Robert Kocharyan’s wife, while his image is associated with Moscow—a potential drawback given the declining trust in Russia within Armenian society.
The potential involvement of Robert Kocharyan or Serzh Sargsyan in the new movement could also deter undecided voters. Despite their political experience, both former presidents carry significant negative ratings and represent the “old system” that a large portion of the population opposes. Moreover, internal contradictions between them could derail any attempt at opposition consolidation. Thus, their genuine support could come from stepping away from the political arena while encouraging their allies to join the new force.
However, the main challenge is not organizing a campaign but formulating a trustworthy political proposal that serves as an alternative to both the current government and the “old” opposition elites. In other words, for success, Karapetyan and his allies must build not just an anti-Pashinyan bloc but a genuinely new, substantive force. There is both time and opportunity for this, but it is crucial to accurately assess the risks and possibilities to develop an effective strategy.