Armenia could face an energy crisis as early as this winter, according to political analyst Georgi Tumasian, who points to the country’s high dependence on imported energy resources, particularly supplies from Russia.
He estimates that around 50–55% of Armenia’s overall energy balance is connected to natural gas in one form or another. Armenia imports all of the gas it consumes.
Tumasian said his calculation includes not only direct gas consumption but also electricity generated at gas-fired power plants and the use of natural gas in transportation.
Gas Remains the Main Component of Armenia’s Energy Balance
According to Tumasian, petroleum products, which are also fully imported, account for around 18–20% of Armenia’s energy balance.
Nuclear fuel represents another approximately 18%, while hydropower and solar facilities under Armenia’s sovereign control together account for barely 10%.
He also noted that Armenia’s gasification rate is around 95%, making natural gas one of the country’s primary heating sources.
A significant share of transportation also relies on gas, while the Yerevan and Hrazdan thermal power plants use natural gas to generate electricity.
“Gas is imported into Armenia entirely from Russia and Iran. Around 85% comes from Russia and 15% from Iran,” Tumasian said.
Based on his calculations, Russian gas alone therefore accounts for approximately 45% of Armenia’s total energy balance.
Diversifying Petroleum Supplies Is Becoming Essential
Tumasian stressed that Armenia’s energy dependence is not limited to natural gas.
Petroleum products account for as much as 20% of the energy balance, and Russia continues to play a dominant role in this segment as well.
At the same time, he noted that Armenia has recently begun diversifying its petroleum imports, including through supplies from Azerbaijan.
According to Tumasian, diversification is especially important given developments surrounding Iran.
However, he argues that Armenia should avoid simply creating a new dependence on Azerbaijan and instead maintain several supply sources in parallel.
The Metsamor Nuclear Plant Is Another Vulnerability
Tumasian identifies the Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant as another vulnerable point in Armenia’s energy security.
The plant generates around 30–40% of the country’s electricity, but according to the analyst it remains effectively dependent on Russian supplies, particularly nuclear fuel.
He warned that simultaneous disruption of several supply channels could have extremely serious consequences in a crisis.
Tumasian did not rule out a scenario in which Russia could create problems during winter along the gas supply route through Georgia, interrupting deliveries to Armenia.
In that case, he estimates, around half of the country’s energy balance could immediately come under pressure.
If disruption of nuclear fuel deliveries were added to that scenario, another roughly 20% could be put at risk.
Cooperation With the United States as a Possible Solution
Tumasian believes Armenia should prepare in advance for the possibility of alternative nuclear fuel supplies and work with the United States in this area.
He cited Ukraine’s experience, noting that the United States has already worked on providing alternative fuel for Ukrainian nuclear power plants built using Soviet technology.
According to him, this demonstrates that alternative nuclear fuel can be supplied to reactors based on Soviet designs.
“We can provide our 10% through hydro and solar power. If we add another 20% through the nuclear plant, that already gives us 30%,” he said.
Armenia Should Prepare for the Worst-Case Scenario
Tumasian urged the Armenian government to begin working with the United States now to secure an alternative source of nuclear fuel if needed.
He also called for continued diversification of petroleum imports, maintaining cooperation with Azerbaijan while expanding supplies from Iran.
The objective, in his view, should be to create the capacity to replace all Russian petroleum supplies if necessary.
Under such a scenario, he estimates that hydro and solar energy could provide around 10% of Armenia’s energy balance, alternative nuclear fuel another 20%, and diversified petroleum imports another 20%.
The most difficult challenge, however, remains natural gas. With a share of around 50%, replacing those volumes quickly would be impossible, Tumasian said.
For this reason, he argues that Armenia should not wait for a possible crisis but prepare in advance for a range of potential scenarios.