Armenia’s current government may face a “collapse” already in the second half of April, as its ideological slogans are losing their credibility. This opinion was expressed by political analyst Stepan Danielyan.
According to him, the authorities built their political campaign around the contrast between peace and war, claiming that they were bringing real peace. “The guarantee of that peace is presented as relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey, as well as the implementation of the TRIPP project. They try to convince the public that the world’s largest superpower has arrived in the region and that no one will dare attack Armenia,” the expert said.
However, developments around Iran show the opposite picture, Danielyan argues. Arab countries hosting US military bases are being bombed. “This means the United States cannot protect its allies even through its military bases or its naval forces,” he said. In his view, the TRIPP project therefore brings war rather than peace. “Because of the authorities’ primitive and simplistic calculations, war is already knocking on Armenia’s door,” he added.
According to him, if Iran withstands the pressure, the issue of TRIPP may effectively disappear, while the image of the United States as a security guarantor in the region could collapse. In that case the region could turn into a new center of war.
“If you follow the news, you can already hear statements in the United States about the need to ensure a military presence in the Caspian Sea in order to protect Azerbaijan from Iran,” he noted. Danielyan does not rule out that Azerbaijan and Turkey could become involved in military operations. “Naturally, the TRIPP project would be used for this — without asking us. In other words, the situation would move completely beyond our control,” the analyst believes.
As a result, he argues, the peace program of the current government may collapse. “Society is already beginning to understand that this is not a party of peace but a party of war. In my opinion, this will become clearly visible already in the second half of April. At that point the ratings of the current authorities will fall even further, they will realize they are losing, and panic will begin,” Danielyan claims.