The authorities are doing everything possible to demonize the so-called “Gyumri-2” post-election scenario and especially their main competitors — those capable of attracting the votes of the undecided electorate. This was stated by political scientist Vigen Hakobyan.
The Authorities’ Tactics
According to him, by constantly manipulating the term “Gyumri-2,” the authorities are pursuing one goal: to create the impression among voters that “Powerful Armenia,” the “Armenia” alliance, and “Prosperous Armenia” are actually identical and are running separately only to collect more votes.
The authorities constantly use the phrase “pole of Russian oligarchs” to present these forces not only as united but also as a factor of external influence. This tactic is largely directed against “Powerful Armenia,” which in the eyes of voters is not associated with either the former or the current authorities and therefore can claim the votes of the undecided or disappointed electorate, contributing to higher voter turnout in the upcoming elections. Therefore, the authorities are doing everything possible to prevent this scenario, constantly convincing the public that the victory of these forces would mean the return of the old regime — and under the influence of external forces, in this case Russia.
A Tool for Creating “Situational” Alliances
As for the substance of the “Gyumri-2” post-election scenario, according to Hakobyan, it is a natural process typical of parliamentary countries.
In his words, a distinctive feature of the parliamentary system is that if no political force gains an absolute majority — 50%+1 votes — after the elections, negotiations begin on forming a coalition. This scheme is very common in European parliaments, where even ideologically opposed forces create situational alliances to form a government. Such coalitions are often short-term, but that is part of the system.
Hakobyan emphasized that what happened in Gyumri was not even coalition formation, but rather coordinated actions by the opposition on a specific issue.
“Yerevan-2” Is Also Possible
A similar coalition was also formed by the ruling political force after the Yerevan elections, when it failed to secure 50%+1 on its own. In this sense, the “Yerevan-2” scenario is also possible if the authorities do not reach a majority.
If the authorities fail to get 50%+1 (which polls indicate as likely), they will be forced to seek allies among forces that have crossed the threshold in order to extend their power.
“Various scenarios are possible. There are political forces that traditionally participate in local elections and gather a certain number of votes. For example, the ‘Republic’ party played a major role in forming power in the Yerevan elections thanks to the votes it received,” he noted, considering it likely that the current ruling team is also making similar calculations.