Military operations in the Middle East, ongoing for a week, are gradually entering a new phase. According to Turkologist Ruben Safaryan, the first phase of the operations against Iran, initiated by the US and Israel, has likely achieved its main objectives; however, this does not yet mean that the conflict is nearing its end.
Strikes of the First Phase
The expert notes that it is currently difficult to give a definitive assessment of whether the attacking side has fully achieved its goals. Nevertheless, it can be stated that the US and Israel achieved significant results in the first phase.
According to him, strikes were carried out against Iran’s top leadership, command centers, military infrastructure, missile systems, and military bases. Safaryan notes that these actions corresponded to the goals set for the first phase of military operations.
He also emphasizes an important point: even under such heavy strikes, Iran has not lost control over its state governance system. “We see that Iran continues to resist these attacks and maintains its governance system,” the expert notes.
Possible Second Phase
Safaryan believes the situation could move into a second phase of military operations. According to him, this can also be inferred from recent statements by US military leadership. If this phase begins, it will include more massive bombings across Iranian territory. In this case, the main targets may include not only military facilities but also communication lines and infrastructure.
The objective, according to him, could be to disrupt Iran’s vital functions, attempting to damage the systems that allow the country to continue operating relatively normally. He also reminds that military operations have already caused significant casualties among civilians. “There are many civilian casualties, children have been killed, and schools have been hit,” he notes.
Could the Kurdish Factor Become Active?
Safaryan states that further developments will largely depend on how a possible second phase of US and Israeli military actions against Iran proceeds. The expert believes that even with massive bombings, it will be difficult to disrupt Iran’s normal state governance or achieve the main goal that could be set — a change of power in Iran and the rise of more pro-Western forces.
If such a scenario does not occur, according to Safaryan, it cannot be ruled out that the US and Israel might attempt to exploit the existing ethnic factor within Iran. Iran is a multiethnic state, and within this context, the Kurdish factor is significant. Therefore, attempts to activate Kurdish organizations in Iran’s Kurdish regions are possible. The expert notes that some reports are already circulating about contacts between representatives of the US armed forces and certain Kurdish organizations operating in Iran’s Kurdish areas.
Nevertheless, Safaryan emphasizes that it is still too early to say that this scenario will necessarily be implemented: such a development is possible but may also not occur. However, if the Kurdish factor is indeed activated, it could also affect Turkey’s behavior.
Possible Turkish Actions
According to him, for Turkey, it is strategically important that Iran preserves its territorial integrity. Ankara is not interested in the fragmentation of Iran, as this could lead to serious changes in the regional balance of power.
At the same time, Turkey is highly sensitive to the Kurdish factor. The Kurdish issue has been a key theme in Turkey’s security policy for many years, and Ankara continuously seeks to prevent developments in the region that could strengthen Kurdish movements.
If the Kurdish factor is indeed activated, this could lead to more active Turkish involvement.
Safaryan does not rule out that in this case Turkey may try to create a buffer zone by deploying its forces in Iran’s border regions, which are mostly Kurdish-inhabited.