The scenario of a ground attack against Iran is currently closed, and a ceasefire may be possible in the near future. Such predictions were made by Armenia’s Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Ambassador Dzyunik Aghajanyan.
Why the ground invasion scenario failed
According to her, within the framework of preparing for potential ground strikes and an invasion of Iran, certain demonstrative steps were taken, which were intended to serve as a basis for subsequent actions.
Aghajanyan noted that within this logic, missiles suddenly appeared on the territory of Turkey, as well as in Nakhchivan and Azerbaijani territory. These steps, she said, were primarily preparatory in nature, meant to create the necessary justification for subsequent actions and to serve as a pretext for next steps.
However, as the ambassador points out, this scenario did not materialize. According to her, the situation had already changed, and the planned process was effectively thwarted.
The role of the Kurds
According to Aghajanyan, the Kurds were supposed to play an important role in this scenario, but their participation also did not occur — neither Syrian, nor Iraqi, nor Iranian Kurds joined the scenario.
She added that two months ago, by “handing over control” of the Kurds in Syria, the Americans intended to ensure Turkey’s involvement in the process, but in doing so they effectively failed to involve the Syrian Kurds.
“The Americans thought: let’s solve this issue now, then deal with the remaining problems. And for that, they ‘handed over’ the Kurds to the Turks to gain their consent — thinking that later they could again ‘feed’ the Kurds with hopes of independence and use them against Iran. But it didn’t work. Because how many times can you be deceived by the same scenario?” she said.
Aghajanyan notes that Kurdish forces have repeatedly faced such situations, and the likelihood of being deceived by the same scenario is gradually decreasing.
US and regional actors’ approach
According to the diplomat, for the United States in such situations, achieving the goal is the priority. To achieve it, she believes, Washington does not limit itself by any “red lines.”
“If they need to deceive — they will deceive, if they need to use — they will use,” she said, emphasizing that the same approach is applied to other regional actors, including Turkey and Azerbaijan.
The ground invasion topic is currently closed
Aghajanyan believes that at the initial stage, Turkey reacted quite cautiously to the developments. At first, even officially, it was denied that any strikes occurred on Turkish territory.
However, later Ankara began making more active statements. Nevertheless, according to the diplomat, the situation changed once it became clear that the scenario involving the Kurds would not be implemented.
According to her, the Kurdish forces were supposed to become the main striking force in a potential ground operation, and in their absence, the topic of a ground invasion was closed, at least at this stage.
Possible ceasefire
According to Aghajanyan, in the near future, the situation may move into the negotiation phase.
In her view, we will see behind-the-scenes negotiations, while at the level of public statements some threats may still be voiced for a time. However, she notes that the tone of these statements will gradually decrease.
The diplomat does not rule out that, as a result of these processes, a ceasefire may be achieved in the near future. In her assessment, in such a scenario, a pause in military operations could form between March 21–23.