Despite protests occurring again in Iran last night, their scale and level of violence have significantly decreased, according to Iranologist Vartan Voskanyan. He notes that this in itself does not mean the protest wave has run its course.
“The real picture will become clearer next Thursday and Friday, when Iran has a holiday and will be able to assess the true dynamics of public activity. The country has declared a three-day mourning period due to the casualties recorded on both sides during the clashes,” he notes.
From Internal Protests to External Decisions
Voskanyan believes that at this stage, the protests within Iran are far more important than the decision the US President must make regarding possible steps against Iran. He notes that the Iranian authorities have generally managed to channel the internal protests into a manageable channel, while external pressure remains decisive.
On his return to Washington the day before, US President Donald Trump again raised the issue of Iran, confirming that no final decision has been made and that several options are being discussed. As the Iran expert notes, it is clear that this decision will be directly linked to both domestic political processes in Iran and the existing, albeit private, mediation contacts between Tehran and Washington.
Weak Hopes for Avoiding a Military Scenario
According to Voskanyan, there is a growing, though still very faint, hope in relations between Iran and the US that a military scenario can be avoided. In this context, he highlights the recent visit of the Omani Foreign Minister to Tehran, which, in his assessment, almost certainly served as a mediation between Tehran and Washington.
According to the expert, it was most likely through Oman that the Iranian message publicly announced by US President Donald Trump was conveyed. The Iranian Foreign Minister also publicly announced the possibility of negotiations today, emphasizing that Tehran is prepared for both negotiations and war.
Backdoor Channels and Competition among Mediators
Of particular interest is the explanation from the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson that the direct Araghchi-Vitkoff communication channel remains open, although it appears to be unused at present. According to Voskanyan, this indicates that diplomatic avenues have not yet been exhausted, but remain dormant.
At the same time, there is a certain competition regarding the mediation mission: alongside Oman, Egypt, Iraq, and Turkey are also active, seeking to play a role in resolving tensions between Iran and the United States.
A Window of Opportunity for Armenia
According to the Iran expert, such complex and multilayered situations, along with their challenges, also offer a window of opportunity. In this context, Armenia may attempt to defend its own national interests, which in no way align with the scenario of a military clash between the US and Iran.
According to Voskanyan, Yerevan is capable of launching a mediation initiative through “invisible diplomacy.” If successful, such a mission would not only avoid the negative consequences of regional upheavals but also significantly improve and strengthen its geopolitical position in the region.