Political developments in Armenia increasingly show that public participation in street protests is reaching its lowest point. Political technologist Armen Badalyan notes that the main — and almost the only — tool of public influence today is voting at the polling station.
Street Pressure Has Become a Myth
He adds that opposition circles still believe in the “myth” of possible street pressure, but the facts show the opposite. As an example, he mentions Vagharshapat: around 20 people attended a rally supporting the government, yet the same political force received more than 6,000 votes in the election. This shows that protesters and voters are two very different groups — and the political system must take this into account.
Banned Parties Lose Their Electorate
Badalyan believes the situation becomes even more difficult for the opposition when the authorities prevent certain parties from running or block their registration. Under such conditions, the electorate of these parties is likely to disperse or abstain from voting.
“Even if a party is banned, its leader’s call to vote for another force will not work. At best, 5–10%, maybe 15% will follow that call. No more.”
Internal Contradictions Weaken the Opposition
He also highlights internal contradictions within the opposition. Some parties present themselves as opposition forces and pretend to fight the government, but in reality operate in its interests. This deprives the opposition of any chance to become the basis for meaningful change.
Prediction for 2031: A Calm Transfer of Power
Badalyan predicts that these same forces will come to power in 2031, and the transition of power will be smooth.
“In 2031, the transfer of power will not matter much anymore. The prime minister will hand it over without resistance, and the new force will declare: the Karabakh issue is closed. We must simply accept the global order we now live in,” he concluded.
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