The processes surrounding Iran have not yet reached their peak of escalation, and hotter developments should be expected in the near future. The current phase is merely a prelude to a large-scale conflict that could form within the framework of the US–Iran–Israel triangle. This was stated by military expert Karen Hovhannisyan.
Iran’s new tactics — a surprise for Washington
The expert notes that at this point, the discussion is mainly about air battles. Iran continues aerial confrontation, while no ground operations have been recorded so far. However, in his opinion, this does not mean that ground clashes are ruled out in the future. “If both sides are thinking about winning, it means the conflict will be longer and, unfortunately, more bloody,” he emphasizes.
Hovhannisyan highlights the fact that this time Iran acted with a completely different geography and tactics. Previously, when strikes were carried out against Iran, responses were mainly directed against Israel. Now the picture has changed. Iran is striking not only Israeli targets but also all American, Israeli, and Western military bases located throughout the Persian Gulf and the Middle East. According to the expert, this creates a qualitatively new situation.
According to him, even in the US defense system, they have not hidden that they did not anticipate such large-scale and multi-directional counteroffensive operations. It was expected that Iran would limit itself to a few missile launches, as in previous cases, some of which did not reach their targets. However, reality turned out differently: “The cards have been reshuffled,” the expert states.
Military bases, aircraft carriers, and calculated confrontation
Hovhannisyan notes that the American side is calculating in advance how long these forces can operate, what scale of operations they can carry out, and what resources will be needed. According to him, the current military movements indicate that Washington is preparing for a possible prolonged confrontation.
In Hovhannisyan’s view, the US used the negotiation process to buy time — to refine intelligence data and organize more effective first-wave strikes. He recalls that during the previous so-called “12-day war,” offensive actions also followed the negotiation phase. “It turns out that for the second time, an attack follows negotiations,” he notes, emphasizing the dangerous nature of such a pattern.
According to Hovhannisyan’s assessment, neither the US nor Israel is inclined toward long-term agreements with Iran’s current authorities. He says it is obvious that the issue of regime change is present in Washington’s strategic calculations.
The expert recalls that the US President has publicly spoken about possible candidates for Iran’s future leadership and even stated that he could appoint appropriate candidates in a short time. According to Hovhannisyan, this indicates that the matter is not only about military pressure but also an attempt at political restructuring.
Without mediators — toward full-scale war
The expert considers it particularly alarming that in the event of conflict expansion, the civilian population will suffer. Civilian casualties already exist on Iranian territory, but the danger is not limited to one country.
If Iran strikes military bases in countries where civilian infrastructure and population are present, the geography of victims could expand. This, according to the expert, will give the conflict an even more unpredictable nature.
Hovhannisyan is convinced that the situation could spiral out of control if mediating countries fail to bring the parties to the negotiating table. “If there is no political will and active involvement of external mediators, the conflict could become deeper, more protracted, and more bloody,” concludes the military expert.
In his assessment, the coming days and weeks will be decisive not only for Iran but for the entire security system of the Middle East.