During the implementation of the TRIPP project, U.S. President Donald Trump will face significant challenges and will not be able to secure sole control. This was stated by political analyst Grogor Balasanyan.
“When implementing the project on the ground, the American side will inevitably encounter all the contradictions concentrated around this issue: from Iran and Russia to China and India,” Balasanyan said.
He noted that, in contrast to the mild reaction of Iran’s political leadership, the clergy and security forces have responded very sharply to the initiative.
“The statements of Iran’s President Pezeshkian regarding TRIPP reflect his personal position and that of his reformist political team, which supports the intensification of dialogue with the U.S. However, let us not forget that Pezeshkian’s influence does not extend to the armed forces, let alone the IRGC, where dissatisfaction and even threats are already being voiced. The Supreme Leader’s advisor on international affairs, Ali Akbar Velayati, has stated that Iran’s response will be harsh, regardless of Moscow’s position on the issue,” the expert said.
According to him, it is also necessary to consider Russia’s stance and Armenia’s obligations within the framework of the EAEU. He recalled that Armenian authorities assure that TRIPP will operate under the same conditions as other borders: this section of the border has been and remains part of the Eurasian customs zone, and accordingly, EAEU rules will apply there. The question arises: how will TRIPP fit into the logic of the EAEU customs regime? This issue requires serious clarification, he notes, pointing to the Armenian authorities’ assurances of their intention to continue active work within the EAEU framework.
“I do not think we will face a situation where TRIPP is not implemented. However, during the project’s implementation, Trump will be forced to take all these nuances into account and cooperate with both Tehran and Moscow. How this will be realized will be determined by diplomats. But Trump’s statement, ‘you have my number, call me if there are problems,’ is an extremely frivolous approach that is not applicable in such a complex region as ours. Ultimately, this is not about the U.S.-Mexico border, where the only issue is unarmed illegal migrants,” he said.
Balasanyan called for considering the interests of India and China as well.
“The North-South route and the East-West transport corridor have their own stakeholders. That is, there is a clash of interests between India and China. How does Trump intend to resolve this issue? That remains unclear,” he said.
The expert is confident that the American side will be forced to propose joint control to implement the project. However, this raises another question: if Washington cannot secure sole control over this road, will the project’s implementation still be of interest to the U.S.?