The Trump Route is part of a strategy to tighten the geopolitical ring around Iran and limit Tehran’s geostrategic advance in the region. Vahe Davtyan, a professor, doctor of political science and energy security specialist, draws comparisons between transport projects promoted by Israel. He argues that their strategic logic extends beyond reopening transport links and developing trade.
In his assessment, the simultaneous escalation of Middle Eastern conflicts, efforts to counter Iranian influence and American investment in regional infrastructure create a risk of war for Armenia.
Israel’s transport projects and the strategy of encircling Iran
According to Davtyan, understanding the Trump Route’s geopolitical significance requires examining it alongside other transport projects promoted by Israel. These include the David Corridor and the Ben-Gurion Corridor, whose implementation Tel Aviv is seeking to advance.
In his assessment, comparing these projects reveals a shared strategic objective: creating a transport ring around Iran and limiting its further geostrategic advance in the region.
Davtyan said a similar tightening of the ring is taking place around Saudi Arabia. Developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz pose serious threats, while unprecedented militarisation is occurring around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. At the same time, Yemen’s Houthis are achieving significant military successes. Saudi Arabia’s oil and gas infrastructure and its East-West Pipeline are coming under intensive attack.
According to the expert, these developments are creating a geopolitical situation in which counterbalancing Iranian influence becomes a priority for Israel. Saudi Arabia has traditionally been one of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s principal rivals in the Middle East.
Saudi Arabia as a potential partner for Israel
Davtyan does not consider it a coincidence that Saudi Arabia’s possible accession to the Abraham Accords was actively discussed before the current phase of regional military escalation. Serious diplomatic discussions had already begun between Riyadh and Tel Aviv.
In Davtyan’s assessment, creating a transport ring around Iran would establish more favourable conditions for Saudi Arabia. As a potential Israeli ally or predictable partner, it would gain advantages in energy, geoeconomics and strategic positioning.
According to Davtyan, Iran’s policies cannot be assessed solely through economic feasibility. Developments over recent decades have repeatedly shown that Tehran’s decisions are driven primarily by geopolitical calculations.
“Iran does not think or carry out its planning exclusively on the basis of economic feasibility. It is more of a geopolitical player than a geoeconomic one,” the expert stressed.
In his assessment, Iran currently provides a significant regional counterweight not only to Israel and Saudi Arabia but also to the United States. The latter broadly serves as their geopolitical support.
Under these circumstances, creating a transport ring around Iran cannot be viewed as a purely economic or logistical initiative. It directly concerns the struggle for regional influence and efforts to restrict Iran’s capabilities.
Davtyan considers Armenia’s involvement in the Trump Route short-sighted
Davtyan believes Armenia’s intensive involvement in the Trump Route project is short-sighted under these circumstances. He also criticises its presentation as a programme to reopen or restore regional transport links and trade connections.
The expert warns that a sharp escalation in the Middle East could place Armenia in a wartime situation. He stresses that infrastructure involving American capital, particularly transport infrastructure, becomes a military target for Iran.
“If escalation intensifies sharply in the Middle East, any infrastructure involving American capital, particularly transport infrastructure, will become a legitimate target for the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Davtyan said.
As evidence, he pointed to recent developments in the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and other countries in the region.
In the expert’s assessment, Armenia cannot ignore these threats and present the Trump Route exclusively in terms of economic benefits. Failure to consider Iran’s geopolitical interests, Israel’s regional strategy and the danger of military escalation could lead Armenia into war.
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