Today, Turkey is not merely observing developments around Iran. It is impatiently waiting for its “moment of destiny.” If military action against Iran begins, Ankara sees it primarily as an opportunity. This assessment is shared by Turkologist Tiran Lokmagyozyan.
According to him, Turkey’s main interest and expectation in this process is the possible fragmentation of Iran. As for refugees, this is not a serious concern for Turkey. Ankara will decide on its own whom to accept, in what numbers, and when.
“As many as it wants — it will let in. As many as it doesn’t want — it simply won’t,” Lokmagyozyan notes, emphasizing that Turkey views the refugee issue not from a humanitarian perspective but purely through the lens of political interest.
The Fragmentation of Iran as Turkey’s Strategic Dream
Lokmagyozyan believes that if war breaks out in Iran, its most serious consequence will be the country’s fragmentation. As a result of this process, the largest territory that could separate from Iran is the Atropatene region, which would represent an extremely advantageous scenario for Turkey.
He stresses that for decades Turkey has worked systematically in this direction — focusing on the radicalization, Turkification, and transformation of identity among Iranian Azerbaijanis. All of this was done with a long-term strategic calculation, while waiting for the right moment.
“A military strike is not something Turkey fears. On the contrary, it is something Ankara strongly desires,” Lokmagyozyan says, emphasizing that this plan is not accidental and has deep historical and political roots.
The Middle East as a Single Strategic Framework
The Turkologist notes that potential developments around Iran should not be viewed solely as a confrontation between the United States and Iran. What is at stake is a comprehensive reshaping of the entire region.
He recalls military actions against Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, then turns to Egypt and Arab North Africa, including Libya. According to Lokmagyozyan, all these processes can be seen as parts of a single military-political strategy.
“Iran is part of the same program, as is Armenia,” he says, emphasizing that this is about a full reconfiguration of the Middle East. In his assessment, secondary issues have already been resolved, while the largest and most difficult issue remaining is Iran.
“They have cleared everyone else. Now only Iran remains. They want to clear Iran as well,” he states bluntly.
Armenia–Turkey “Relations”: A Non-Existent Relationship
Addressing relations between Armenia and Turkey, Lokmagyozyan emphasizes that in reality no genuine relationship exists.
“One or two visits cannot be called interstate relations,” he says, adding that what is presented today as dialogue in fact resembles a relationship between a master and a subordinate.
In his view, Armenia acts exclusively as the conceding side in this process, while the other side only receives. Moreover, he claims that direct instructions and demands are already coming from Azerbaijan.
“They say it plainly: I will decide Armenia’s borders,” the Turkologist notes, emphasizing that this is not negotiation but coercion.
The Risk of Vassalization and the Loss of Statehood
According to him, Armenia has already entered a state of vassalization, and this dependence may deepen further.
If the Iranian issue escalates and the war ends with Iran’s fragmentation, Armenia could simply disappear from the historical stage or exist only formally.
“In reality, we are already in a situation where Armenian statehood no longer exists,” he says, adding that Armenia has effectively been sealed off between Turkey and Azerbaijan.
In his assessment, this process will not only continue but may very soon become irreversible.