A new US–Israeli strike against Iran was widely expected, yet the recent US operation in Venezuela may disrupt these plans by creating unexpected political and economic complications. This assessment was offered by political analyst Armen Ayvazyan.
Failed Political Outcomes of the Venezuela Operation
According to him, although US actions in Venezuela were militarily effective, they failed to achieve their political objectives. Instead, they led to public consolidation around the current authorities in response to an external threat.
Ayvazyan draws a parallel with Iran, where last year’s attack resulted in broad social unity under the national flag. Similar dynamics, he argues, are now emerging in Venezuela, producing the opposite of Washington’s intended outcome.
A second strike by the United States would be far more difficult from a military standpoint, as Venezuela is now better prepared. Politically, such a move would place a heavy burden on the Trump administration and require additional resources.
Even if Washington were to establish control over Venezuela’s oil infrastructure, this would demand substantial investment, turning into a significant economic burden for the United States.
Limited International Support
Ayvazyan notes that the operation did not receive clear international backing. In Latin America, only Argentina and Ecuador expressed political support, without offering military assistance.
Major regional powers — Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, and Mexico — strongly condemned the intervention, further complicating the US position.
Iran’s Prospects and the Venezuela Link
The analyst argues that had the operation in Venezuela succeeded, Iran would have been the next target. In the event of a major conflict, Iran would likely close the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 30 percent of global oil exports pass.
Control over Venezuelan oil could have provided the US and its allies with alternative energy supplies. However, the current crisis in Venezuela has delayed such plans.
Despite internal unrest in Iran, Ayvazyan believes Washington is now forced to postpone any potential action against Tehran. He suggests that this delay could even prevent an attack altogether.
Armenia’s Interests and the Importance of Iran’s Stability
Ayvazyan emphasizes that these developments also serve Armenia’s interests. A stable Iran, he says, is a key guarantor of Armenia’s security, particularly in the Syunik region, and acts as a deterrent against possible Azerbaijani incursions.
At present, Iran is Armenia’s main security guarantor, while the formal alliance with Russia often fails to function effectively in practice.
Therefore, preventing an attack on Iran ultimately contributes to Armenia’s own stability and security.