Russia is no longer capable of influencing Armenia’s domestic political landscape, and its positions in the country have effectively been lost. This view was expressed by political strategist Armen Badalyan, who emphasizes that the issue is not temporary difficulty, but systemic decline.
One of the clearest examples of this weakening, he says, is Russia’s failed attempt to open a consulate in Kapan. For two years Moscow has tried to implement the project without success, while Iran managed to do so. This, according to Badalyan, clearly shows that Russia is no longer the same geopolitical actor it once was.
Ukraine as a Center of Resource Drain
Badalyan notes that Russia’s main resources are now fully concentrated on Ukraine. According to him, the country’s entire capacity is consumed by the war, where progress is measured by the capture of individual villages.
In other regions, including the South Caucasus, Russia is steadily losing ground. Under these conditions, any attempt by Moscow to act in Armenia is doomed to fail due to the absence of effective leverage.
The Loss of “Soft Power” in Armenia
The analyst argues that over the past three decades Russia has completely lost its ability to work systematically with Armenian society. The activities of Russian ambassadors, he says, were largely non-strategic.
He remarks that diplomats were more engaged in cognac tastings than in serious political or public work. The only exception, in his view, was in 1998, when a Russian ambassador managed to influence a change of power.
In all other cases, Badalyan says, Armenian–Russian relations were built on formality. The same applies to Russian “soft power” institutions such as Rossotrudnichestvo and the Moscow House, which have often turned into symbolic or inefficient structures.
Loss of Economic and Strategic Levers
Badalyan is convinced that continued setbacks in Armenia will lead Russia to lose its remaining economic and strategic levers. These include electricity distribution, railways, and nuclear energy.
He believes that power networks will eventually leave Russian control, railway management licenses will not be renewed, and contracts for a new nuclear power unit will not be signed. Instead, such projects are likely to be implemented by European or American companies.
Within the same logic, Badalyan does not rule out the eventual withdrawal of Russian border guards and military forces from Armenia, regardless of official claims that no such agenda exists.
A Changing Regional Reality
According to the political strategist, even the end of the Russia–Ukraine war will not alter Armenia’s strategic environment. The issue, he argues, extends beyond Armenia itself.
Western influence is strengthening in Georgia, Azerbaijan is effectively aligned with Turkey, and Ankara is seeking to consolidate its position in the region. Under these circumstances, Badalyan says, Russia would first need to restore influence in Azerbaijan or Georgia to regain a foothold in Armenia.
At present, he concludes, such a prospect remains extremely distant from reality.