Armenia and Azerbaijan are currently in a phase of “peaceful uncertainty”: there is relative calm, but it has not yet turned into a formally documented peace. This was stated by political analyst Tatoul Hakobyan.
Easing rhetoric as a positive signal
According to the analyst, there has recently been an almost complete absence of harsh anti-Armenian and anti-Azerbaijani rhetoric, which can be seen as a positive signal for long-term peace. He notes that such an atmosphere helps reduce tensions and could theoretically create a basis for advancing the peace process.
At the same time, this relative calm has not yet translated into real progress at the negotiation or legal level.
Hakobyan believes that the main issue remains the preconditions put forward by Azerbaijan. According to him, the Armenian side appears to have expressed readiness to take steps toward fulfilling these demands, expecting that Baku would then move to signing a peace agreement.
However, the analyst notes that although the likelihood of such a scenario is high, the final outcome remains unclear.
The issue of constitutional changes
Hakobyan draws particular attention to the fact that Azerbaijan and Turkey are waiting for a constitutional referendum in Armenia. Specifically, this concerns the wording in the preamble of the Constitution that refers to the Declaration of Independence.
Hakobyan does not rule out that, following these changes, diplomatic relations could be established, including with Turkey. However, he stresses that developments in the region are so dynamic that even short-term forecasts are difficult.
He describes the current stage not as stability, but as a temporary balance, where any development could sharply change the situation.