In recent years, large-scale transport and logistics megaprojects have taken a central place on the international political and economic agenda, connecting Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. Within these processes, the South Caucasus is gradually turning into a hub of both competition and cooperation among global interests, and Armenia has a real opportunity to become a full participant in this system, ensuring not only economic growth but also a new level of national security.
Speaking on this topic, member of the Executive Body of the Republican Party of Armenia Gagik Minasyan emphasized that in today’s world, communications are no longer merely an economic instrument. They are directly linked to security issues, as countries through whose territory routes of vital importance to major powers pass effectively receive security guarantees from those powers.
Communications as a Security Guarantee
According to Minasyan, if a country is able to provide strategic communications for several major powers simultaneously through its territory, its security increases not at a theoretical but at a practical level. By solving their economic tasks through transport corridors passing through a given country, major powers become заинтересованы in that country’s stability and safety.
In this context, three global megaprojects are highlighted, which today intersect in the South Caucasus and will largely determine the role of regional countries in the coming decades.
The first is China’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative, aimed at ensuring stable connectivity between China and Europe. The second is the Persian Gulf–Black Sea project, through which India seeks to organize the supply of its goods to European markets. The third is Russia’s “North–South” program, connecting Russia with Iran, the Persian Gulf, India, and African countries.
The implementation of these projects is accompanied by competition among states: each country seeks to route the most advantageous branches through its territory, gaining economic, political, and security dividends.
The “North–South” Project and Its Four Branches
According to Minasyan, a country can claim participation in a megaproject only if three conditions are present: a favorable geographic location, internal communications that meet international standards, and stable, reliable relations with the main beneficiaries of these programs.
In addition, megaproject initiators never accept the idea that the entire transport flow passes through only one country. Monopoly transit carries high risks—from internal political instability to international contradictions. Therefore, megaprojects always aim for diversification.
Within Russia’s “North–South” project, four main directions are planned: the eastern branch connecting Russia with Iran via Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan; a route through the Caspian Sea; a land corridor Russia–Azerbaijan–Iran; the so-called Caucasian route connecting Russia with Iran via Georgia and Armenia.
This diversification is a key prerequisite for the project’s stability, preventing any single country from monopolizing transport routes.
“One Belt, One Road”: Armenia as an Alternative Route
China’s initiative originally included three branches—northern, middle, and southern. Today, due to well-known political circumstances, the northern branch through Russia is effectively non-operational. The middle and southern routes remain.
The middle corridor passes through Azerbaijan, after which cargo is directed either to Georgia or Armenia. The southern Iranian corridor also has two exits: through Turkey or via Armenia–Georgia–the Black Sea. Here again, diversification is vital to ensure that the entire project does not fall under the influence of a single political center.
The Persian Gulf–Black Sea Project
The India–Europe project via the Persian Gulf and the Black Sea has two main branches in the South Caucasus: Armenia–Georgia–Black Seaб Azerbaijan–Georgia–Black Sea
According to Minasyan, Armenia can become a full participant in this project, gaining not only significant financial opportunities but also additional security guarantees.
What Must Be Done in Armenia: Four Concrete Projects
Armenia’s main task is the development of internal communications. For this purpose, four concrete projects are proposed.
First project — the highway project.
It envisions connecting Vanadzor with Hrazdan and Yerevan via a short and efficient road. This route eliminates dangerous serpentines, significantly lowers the highest altitude point, and shortens the distance. The key element is a 9 km tunnel near the Meghradzor railway tunnel, most of which was actually built during the Soviet period. Estimated cost: about 65 million USD.
Second project — the railway project.
Construction of a new Vanadzor–Meghradzor railway line of 35–40 km, which would shorten the Georgia–Yerevan route by about 70 km and the Ijevan–Gyumri route by about 100 km. Estimated cost: around 250 million USD.
Third project — restoration of the Ijevan–Gyumri railway, which has not been in operation for many years. Building bypass sections around collapsed parts is estimated at 80 million USD.
Fourth and largest project — the southern railway corridor connecting Armenia with Iran.
This project was developed years ago, has completed engineering documentation, and is estimated at about 3.5 billion USD. Its implementation would fully open Armenia toward all neighboring countries.
Armenia’s Competitive Advantage
The proposed infrastructure solutions allow Armenia to participate simultaneously in all three global megaprojects. In effect, Armenia gains railway and highway connectivity with all neighboring countries—Iran, Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Georgia.
Within the “North–South” project, Armenia obtains not only the classic Georgia–Iran direction but also an additional, more efficient route through a new Vanadzor transport hub. This route is particularly convenient for cargo arriving from Georgia via Upper Lars, as it is shorter, lacks dangerous serpentines, and runs at lower altitude.
Within the “One Belt, One Road” initiative, Armenia can serve as a real alternative to the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway. According to Minasyan, the route through Ijevan–Gyumri toward Europe is about 200 km shorter than the existing and planned Turkish-Azerbaijani routes, significantly reducing time and costs.
He also mentions the so-called “Trump route” between Baku and Kars, noting that it is likewise about 200 km longer than the Armenian alternative. In this context, Armenia’s project becomes not a political, but a purely economic and efficiency-based option.
The Iranian Direction and the Principle of Diversification
In the southern version of the “One Belt, One Road” initiative, cargo from Central Asia can reach Iran, then via the future southern railway ascend to Armenia, then to Georgia and Black Sea ports.
Minasyan again returns to the idea of diversification. Today, Azerbaijan effectively holds a monopoly in the middle corridor, and Turkey in the southern corridor. Considering the close political and strategic ties between Azerbaijan and Turkey, as well as their relations with Iran, China’s initiative could become dependent on a single decision-making center, contradicting the project’s very philosophy. The only real alternative, according to Minasyan, is connecting Iran to Europe via Armenia and Georgia.
The India–Europe project via the Persian Gulf–Black Sea also fully benefits from Armenia’s proposed railway and highway infrastructure. Minasyan emphasizes that all four proposed projects are applicable not to one, but simultaneously to three global megaprojects, multiplying their strategic value.
Figures That Speak for Themselves
According to forecasts, by 2030: the “One Belt, One Road” route will transport 15–22 million tons of cargo annually; the “North–South” corridor — 15–20 million tons; the India–Europe route — 3–5 million tons.
Minasyan’s calculations suggest that Armenia could carry annually: 4–6 million tons via “One Belt, One Road”; 2–3 million tons via “North–South”; 2–3 million tons via the India–Europe corridor.
Thus, it is entirely realistic for Armenia to ensure transit of 8–12 million tons of cargo per year.
From Economy to Security
These volumes open major economic opportunities: transport fees, infrastructure development, job creation, and regional integration. But no less important is the security component.
Communication routes of vital importance for Russia, China, and India will pass through Armenia’s territory. This means Armenia’s security will become not a secondary, but a priority issue for these states.
Implementation Model: Consortium, Not Debt
Given the extremely high cost of the southern railway project (3.5 billion USD), Minasyan stresses the importance of choosing the correct financial model. In his view, the project should be implemented through a consortium involving the main beneficiaries of the megaprojects—Russia, China, and India.
By using the railway passing through Armenia, these countries would not merely pay for its construction but would receive real income from its operation, making them interested not only in building the route but also in its stable and efficient functioning.