The parliamentary elections scheduled for the summer of 2026 are among the key topics on Armenia’s domestic political agenda. The possibility of power reproduction or change is already becoming the subject of active discussion — both in political circles and in public discourse.
According to political commentator Hakob Badalyan, a change of power through elections is theoretically possible; however, its realization fully depends on the opposition’s work and public attitudes toward the electoral process.
Change of Power Through Elections
Badalyan emphasizes that, in general, the possibility of removing Nikol Pashinyan from power through elections exists. However, this possibility does not materialize automatically simply because public distrust toward the current prime minister is high.
“Today there is significant public distrust toward Nikol Pashinyan — his anti-rating is quite high — but this in itself does not yet mean that the opposition has a positive rating,” the political commentator notes.
According to him, this is a fundamental misconception often present within the opposition: a high anti-rating of the ruling власти does not automatically transform into political capital for the opposition.
Public Indifference as a Key Obstacle
In Badalyan’s assessment, the current level of public interest in the electoral process is insufficient to bring about real change. Existing interest is mainly limited to opposition supporters, which cannot ensure an electoral victory.
He draws attention to sociological surveys indicating that around 60–70% of society demonstrates political indifference, does not trust political forces, and does not participate in political processes.
“If this layer is not engaged, the logic of removing Pashinyan through elections will remain at a theoretical level,” Badalyan states.
The Need to Engage New Social Groups
According to the political commentator, one of the main challenges facing the opposition is the engagement of new social groups in political processes. Without this, it is impossible to form the broad electoral base that can play a decisive role in elections.
For this purpose, Badalyan believes the opposition must find rational political formats capable of ensuring maximum outreach. This may involve several opposition yet realistic and complementary formats, able to work with different social groups.
“How this issue is resolved will determine whether it becomes possible to remove Pashinyan through elections,” he emphasizes.
Probability of Pashinyan’s Power Reproduction
Badalyan assesses that in the current situation, the likelihood of Nikol Pashinyan retaining power is determined not so much by his own strengths, but by the effectiveness — or ineffectiveness — of the opposition’s work.
“In my view, the possibility of Pashinyan’s reproduction in power today depends on the opposition’s work. If the opposition does not work effectively, that is precisely when Pashinyan can solve the task of maintaining power,” the commentator notes.
According to Badalyan, within Pashinyan’s political field there are no real allies capable of significantly expanding his electoral base or raising his rating.
“In his political field, there is no partner capable of bringing real electoral value,” Badalyan says.
He adds that Pashinyan can rely only on his own political resource, which also has its limits.
Local Elections as a Signal
As an example, Badalyan refers to local elections, particularly in Gyumri and Vagharshapat. In his assessment, these processes show that Pashinyan cannot solve his political задач through coalition or partnership mechanisms.
The Vagharshapat case, according to Badalyan, is especially telling: one of the forces actively supporting Pashinyan failed to pass the threshold to enter the council by just several dozen votes. However, the prime minister did not intervene in the situation and did not attempt to secure that force’s presence through coalition mechanisms.
This, in Badalyan’s view, indicates that Pashinyan understands that “in his political field he is the strongest figure, while the remaining actors are too far even from being a complementary force.”
According to Badalyan, a change of power in the 2026 parliamentary elections is possible only if the opposition manages to overcome political indifference, engage new social groups, and propose effective, rational political formats. Otherwise, the reproduction of the current government will occur not due to its own strength, but due to the weakness of the opposition.