The opposition must show society what the real alternative is and what threats the country is actually facing. Without such understanding among voters, the current authorities become practically invulnerable. This opinion was expressed by political analyst Edgar Elbakyan, co-founder of the Armenian Project organization.
According to him, the authorities are able to maintain strong ratings through social and economic issues precisely because there is no sufficiently strong discourse around national and existential questions. “If you remove the national question from the equation, the authorities become unbeatable,” the political analyst stated, “although in reality this is not the case.”
Social Programs Are Driving the Government’s Ratings
Elbakyan noted that according to surveys conducted by Armenian Project, the government’s approval rating has increased since winter. In his assessment, this growth is mainly linked to social programs, including pension increases, healthcare insurance initiatives, and other welfare measures financed through state resources.
At the same time, the political analyst stressed that this does not mean society’s deeper concerns have disappeared.
He argues that the authorities’ main vulnerability remains the national and security agenda, primarily the issue of Artsakh. According to Elbakyan, this topic remains the most painful for the government, which is why the authorities attempt to push it out of the center of political discussion.
The Artsakh Issue Remains the Core Challenge
“If we remove the national question for a moment — Artsakh, Armenian identity, the issue of existence and historical responsibility — what remains among the main accusations against the authorities? Corruption? Yes, corruption exists, but it is not an existential problem for the state,” he said.
Elbakyan believes that weakening the national agenda allows the authorities to overcome public dissatisfaction more easily. In his view, when political struggle shifts exclusively into social or everyday issues, it becomes far easier for the government to manage the situation.
The Opposition Should Not Adapt to Fear
According to the political analyst, the main mistake of the opposition and national forces is that they often begin adapting themselves to the framework created by the authorities.
“Today Armenian society is deeply frightened by war, and this fear has been shaped by the combined actions of Aliyev, Erdogan, and Nikol Pashinyan. The opposition should not try to adapt to these fears at any cost. It must demonstrate that the real alternative is not between peace and war, but between being massacred while unprepared and resisting with dignity while prepared.
If in 2018 the people had remained alone without leadership from the elite, no serious movement would have emerged. But leadership must offer the correct agenda. Society must understand that the real choice lies exactly here — between unprepared slaughter and dignified resistance,” Elbakyan concluded.