Russia’s restrictions on the export and transit of Armenian goods have a political dimension, but they are unlikely to be long-term. The current tensions are expected to ease gradually over the coming weeks or months. This opinion was expressed by Haykaz Fanyan, director of the Access analytical center.
Russia Is Not Interested in Losing Influence
According to Fanyan, Russia’s leverage over Armenia has significantly weakened since 2020. This applies both to its mediating role in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict settlement process and to the supply of weapons and ammunition.
“Today, the main instrument of influence Russia still has is the economic lever — Armenian exports to Russia and Russian gas supplies to Armenia,” Fanyan said.
In his view, Moscow is interested in preserving its influence over Armenia, which is why the current situation may gradually soften in the coming weeks or months.
Fanyan argues that if Armenian exports to Russia sharply decline, gas prices rise, and opportunities for Armenian citizens working seasonally in Russia become more limited, Russia itself will lose important tools of influence over Armenia.
“This very circumstance, in my opinion, may lead to a gradual de-escalation of the situation,” he said.
Government Measures Were Late but Necessary
At the same time, the expert believes the current crisis has exposed structural vulnerabilities in Armenia’s export system.
According to his data, around 98 percent of Armenia’s vegetable exports, 93 percent of fruit exports, and 97 percent of fish product exports go to the Russian market.
“Such dependence on a single market is a serious risk for any country,” he emphasized.
Fanyan noted that the government’s previous policies aimed at diversifying export markets have not produced tangible results.
“I can say that at least at the implementation level, the government’s actions cannot be assessed as sufficient. Otherwise, we would not have reached a situation where 98 percent of vegetables, 93 percent of fruits, and 97 percent of fish products are exported to just one country — Russia,” he said.
Subsidies May Help but Also Create Risks
Fanyan assessed the export subsidy program positively under crisis conditions, noting that it was launched relatively quickly.
According to him, the proposed support may help exporters enter alternative markets.
However, the expert also warns that making businesses dependent on subsidies carries risks.
He argues that it would be wrong to expect the state to fully assume responsibility for finding new markets and ensuring product sales.
“This is a two-sided process. Both the state and the private sector must take steps,” he said.
Fanyan also stressed that it is impossible to replace the Russian market with alternative destinations in a short period of time.
“This requires time. Awareness of Armenia in new markets must grow, businesses must learn local conditions, establish contacts, and adapt to new rules of the game,” he said.
The State Alone Cannot Solve the Problem
According to the expert, it is currently impossible to fully neutralize the crisis, but its consequences can be mitigated.
He noted that the domestic market also has some potential to absorb part of the products originally intended for export.
If prices fall, consumption volumes may increase, although farms and intermediaries will still suffer certain losses.
Armenia Needs Export Infrastructure
Among long-term solutions, Fanyan emphasizes the need to develop exporters’ capacities and create specialized institutional structures.
According to him, Armenia still does not have an export agency, although its creation was envisaged in the export strategy approved on July 31, 2025.
“Almost a year has passed, but the structure has still not been formed. Of course, even if it already existed, it would not automatically ensure access to new markets. But such tools are necessary for systematic work to expand export directions,” he said.
Fanyan expressed hope that the export agency will be established in the near future, including with support from the European Union, and become one of the key pillars of Armenia’s export policy.
In his view, drawing the right conclusions from the current situation requires first accurately diagnosing the existing problems. Only then can Armenia’s export system become more resilient to external shocks in the future.