The growing tensions in Armenia-Russia relations could have deeper and longer-term consequences if existing disagreements continue to intensify. This opinion was expressed by political strategist Vigen Hakobyan while commenting on the current state of bilateral relations and recent statements from Moscow.
Economic Restrictions Reflect a Broader Crisis
According to Hakobyan, the economic restrictions already imposed by Russia are a clear sign of the serious crisis in bilateral relations.
“Given the current abnormal state of Armenia-Russia relations and the fact that the situation has already reached the stage of de facto economic sanctions, I cannot rule out that if Russia’s highest political leadership decides to deepen this confrontation, Moscow may resort to even tougher measures,” he said.
Such Decisions Are Made at the Highest Level
Hakobyan argues that restrictions affecting Armenian exports are particularly sensitive.
In his opinion, measures of this scale are unlikely to originate from lower-level institutions.
Instead, he believes they are adopted at the highest political level following lengthy discussions and careful strategic calculations.
“These restrictions on exports are extremely serious decisions, especially considering that Russia and Armenia formally remain strategic allies and continue to belong to the same economic and security organizations,” he noted.
Moscow’s Assessment of Armenia’s Foreign Policy Will Be Crucial
According to Hakobyan, future developments will largely depend on how Russia interprets Armenia’s foreign policy trajectory.
He notes that Russian officials and political commentators have increasingly expressed concern over Armenia’s growing cooperation with the European Union.
The analyst recalls that senior Russian officials, including Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, have repeatedly described the European Union as an unfriendly political bloc.
More Serious Consequences Cannot Be Ruled Out
“If Moscow concludes that Armenia is moving into the camp of its geopolitical opponents, the situation could change dramatically. The Russian political system often takes time to make decisions, but once those decisions are made, implementation tends to be rapid and very firm,” Hakobyan argues.
Ordinary Citizens Could Also Be Affected
The political strategist warns that further deterioration in bilateral relations could extend beyond government-to-government cooperation.
According to him, future measures could also affect ordinary citizens, including travel arrangements and possible changes to visa regulations.
Practical Steps Matter More Than Statements
Hakobyan concludes that it is essential to monitor not only official statements but also concrete actions.
In his view, those practical decisions will provide the clearest indication of how Armenia-Russia relations are likely to evolve in the coming months.