The normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations would allow Armenia to fully free itself from its military and political dependence on Russia, according to political analyst Hovsep Khurshudyan.
“The normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations would give Armenia complete freedom to move toward removing Russian military bases and dismantling the entire system of related agreements. I am not even referring to withdrawal from the CSTO; we may consider Armenia effectively no longer part of that organization. Beyond that, however, there are more than a dozen military-political agreements, economic membership in the Eurasian Economic Union, other economic arrangements and numerous legal mechanisms within the CIS that facilitate trade, including duty-free trade,” the analyst said.
According to Khurshudyan, normalized relations with Turkey would enable Armenia to withdraw from these agreements without major difficulties and to withstand possible external pressure.
Russia and Azerbaijan Have Converging Interests
Khurshudyan argues that this is precisely why Russia is not interested in the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations and is cooperating with Azerbaijan on the issue.
“Russia is working with Aliyev because their interests coincide. Aliyev also does not want Armenian-Turkish relations to be normalized. If that happens, he will lose his leverage over Armenia,” the analyst said.
Khurshudyan also believes that Azerbaijan has no interest in Armenia’s economic development, since stronger Armenian performance creates comparisons and assessments that are uncomfortable for the authorities in Baku.
“Aliyev does not benefit from the opening of the Turkish border or from Armenia gaining a land route to Europe. He does not benefit from Armenia’s development. Armenia has already moved ahead of Azerbaijan in terms of economic development, and its gross domestic product per capita has surpassed that of oil-rich Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani experts are already discussing this and warning that Armenia is developing dynamically while their country remains trapped in stagnation because of its autocratic system,” Khurshudyan said.
Baku Is Delaying the Peace Agreement
According to the political analyst, Azerbaijan is deliberately delaying not only the signing of the peace agreement with Armenia but is also continuing to pressure Turkey to keep the Armenian-Turkish border closed.
“The reason and pretext is that the peace agreement has not yet been formally signed. But it remains unsigned because Azerbaijan has introduced an artificial demand for constitutional amendments in Armenia, although such a requirement has never been officially recorded. There is no such provision in the agreements of August 8,” he said.
Khurshudyan argues that Aliyev clearly understands the domestic political consequences that such a demand could create in Armenia and therefore repeatedly emphasizes it.
“Aliyev understands what problems may arise in Armenia if constitutional amendments are promoted as a response to his demand. That is why he constantly stresses that the process is supposedly taking place at his insistence, while fully realizing that under such conditions Armenian society will never accept it,” the expert said.
In Khurshudyan’s assessment, the entire process is deliberate rather than accidental.
“This is an obvious Russian-Azerbaijani game,” he said.
Turkey Sends Positive Signals but Retains Its Previous Condition
At the same time, Khurshudyan notes that Turkey has also sent some positive signals.
According to him, Turkish officials have stated that, on the instruction of the Turkish president, preparations are under way for the opening of border checkpoints and railway infrastructure.
However, the analyst notes that Ankara continues to insist officially that the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace agreement must be signed first.