A referendum on Armenia’s accession to the European Union carries significant political importance for Russia, according to political scientist Robert Ghevondyan.
In his assessment, if Armenian citizens were asked to choose between the Eurasian Economic Union and the European Union, the majority would most likely choose the European direction.
Ghevondyan said this is indicated by the Eurovote process, various opinion polls and broader public sentiment. According to him, the gap between supporters of EU membership and those who favor remaining in the EAEU is considerable.
The political scientist estimates that in a potential referendum, support could reach not merely 51%, but 70–80% or even higher.
A Referendum Could Give Russia a New Basis for Pressure
According to Ghevondyan, if the Armenian people choose the European Union in a referendum and effectively reject the EAEU, this could give Russia a legitimate pretext to intensify pressure on Armenia.
In such a scenario, he said, Moscow could initiate the process of Armenia’s departure from the EAEU, employ methods of pressure and intimidation, and offer Armenia alternatives in exchange for concessions on certain issues.
“Armenia would effectively give Russia a legitimate pretext to act through even tougher measures and exert even greater pressure on Armenia,” Ghevondyan said.
In his assessment, awareness of these risks is precisely why the Armenian authorities are currently not moving toward holding such a referendum.
Holding a Referendum Is Armenia’s Sovereign Decision
The political scientist emphasized that the decision to hold a referendum falls within the sovereign authority of the Republic of Armenia.
According to him, it is up to the Armenian authorities to determine when it is necessary to consult the public and when a referendum should be held.
Ghevondyan recalled that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had stated that a referendum would be held after Armenia submits an application for membership in the European Union.
According to him, this is a decision by Armenia’s legitimately elected authorities to consult their own voters.
At the same time, he noted that various statements may be made in Russia and other EAEU member states, but such statements cannot determine when or what kind of referendum should be held in Armenia.
Russian Pressure Does Not Reduce Anti-Russian Sentiment
According to Ghevondyan, the restrictions and pressure imposed by Russia on Armenia are contributing not to stronger pro-Russian sentiment, but to a further increase in anti-Russian attitudes.
He believes that Russia either misjudges Armenia’s domestic political situation or that the information reaching Moscow does not accurately reflect the situation on the ground.
“The situation inside the Republic of Armenia is not being assessed correctly in Russia, or what is being reported to them is not being reported accurately,” the political scientist said.
According to Ghevondyan, Russia’s perceptions of Armenian society, social relations, relations between the government and the public, and public attitudes toward the current government may be shaped by statements from individual figures, including representatives of opposition circles.
In his assessment, such information does not reflect the position of the majority of Armenian citizens regarding either the government’s actions or the main directions of foreign policy.
As a result, he said, Russia is taking steps that do not ease existing problems between Armenia and Russia but instead deepen them further.