Recent statements coming from Russia, including those concerning Armenia and the Russian military presence, should be viewed not as a direct signal that Moscow is prepared to withdraw from the region, but as part of its negotiating tactics.
According to regional affairs expert Armen Petrosyan, Russia’s current rhetoric is connected with important upcoming negotiations and political processes.
Moscow Is Trying to Downplay Armenia’s Importance
According to Petrosyan, Russia is currently trying to create the impression that relations with Moscow are primarily necessary for Armenia itself, while they are of secondary importance to Russia.
The expert believes this is why statements coming from Moscow shift responsibility for the future of relations with Russia onto Armenian society itself.
Russia’s position on the military base and border guards also fits within this logic. If the Armenian people decide that the military base is no longer necessary, Russia is prepared to withdraw it.
According to the logic of these statements, the same applies to the border guards and Armenia’s membership in the EAEU.
Petrosyan believes that all of this is primarily a pre-negotiation tactic.
“The South Caucasus Remains Important to Russia”
The expert does not believe that Russia has genuinely lost interest in the South Caucasus.
According to him, no one can seriously claim that the region is no longer important to Russia.
On the contrary, the South Caucasus continues to have strategic significance, while Armenia is particularly important to Russia because it is through Armenia that Moscow still maintains its presence in the region.
“Armenian-Russian relations are unparalleled in strategic terms and in terms of Russia’s presence in the South Caucasus,” Petrosyan said.
He therefore believes Russia’s current statements should not be interpreted literally as a willingness to abandon Armenia or the South Caucasus.
According to Petrosyan, Moscow’s current tactic is intended to limit Armenia’s ability to raise the “price” of individual areas of its relationship with Russia during negotiations.
“Russia is trying to reduce their importance so that Armenia does not try to sell any area of the relationship to Russia at a high price,” he said.
According to the expert, if relations with Armenia were genuinely of secondary importance to Russia, Moscow would not be attempting such active political and negotiating positioning around those relations.
The Risk of Going “All In” — Escalation Inside Armenia
According to Petrosyan, at this stage Russia appears prepared to go “all in” to achieve its objectives.
However, the expert also sees a potential risk in Armenia’s domestic political environment.
In his assessment, one possible form of tougher Russian negotiating tactics could be an attempt to escalate the situation inside Armenia.
“Going all in could perhaps mean provoking a Ukraine number two inside Armenia,” Petrosyan said, suggesting that Moscow could use not only diplomatic and economic tools but also instruments of political influence to achieve its objectives.