From April 1 to September 1, there were no significant changes in the substance of the Armenian-Russian dialogue. According to political scientist Suren Surenyants, the latest meeting between Nikol Pashinyan and Vladimir Putin did not bring the sides’ positions closer on any fundamental issue.
“We essentially saw the same rhetoric, the same discourse, with no convergence of positions on any fundamental issue,” Surenyants said.
EU and EAEU: The Sides’ Positions Remain at Odds
According to the political scientist, Armenia’s relations with the EU and the EAEU have already created not only a political but also an institutional contradiction.
In Surenyants’ assessment, Nikol Pashinyan is trying to gain time by declaring Armenia’s European direction on the one hand, while continuing to benefit from the economic opportunities provided by EAEU membership on the other.
At the same time, according to him, Vladimir Putin expects Armenia to hold a referendum on its European orientation as soon as possible.
The political scientist believes that Pashinyan’s invitation to Moscow can be viewed as a tactical success. However, it will not change anything from the perspective of resolving Armenia’s strategic issues.
According to Surenyants, the Moscow invitation allowed Pashinyan to neutralize claims by the Armenian opposition that the Russian leadership would not receive him.
However, the political scientist argues that this is not a strategically significant result at the state level.
The Most Dangerous Issue Is That the Alliance Model No Longer Works
According to Surenyants, the sides are likely to continue their current political course, each proceeding from its own position.
In his assessment, the biggest problem is not that individual negotiating issues remain unresolved, but that the previous alliance model of Armenian-Russian relations no longer works.
According to him, the main question now is how the transformation of these relations will develop.
One possibility is an institutional dismantling of the alliance relationship, which could be accompanied by a harsh Russian response.
Another possibility is that the sides will attempt to redefine their previous relationship within a narrower framework.
The 102nd Military Base as an Instrument of Russian Influence
According to Surenyants, Putin’s decision to raise the issue of the 102nd military base is one of the important signals of this redefinition of relations.
The Russian president effectively indicated that the future of the military base could become a separate subject of negotiations: if Armenia wants Russia to withdraw it, it can do so; if Armenia does not, the presence will continue.
The political scientist believes that Russia is pursuing two objectives simultaneously with this statement.
On the one hand, responsibility is placed on the Armenian government. On the other, the political cost of possible Armenian actions is increased.
“Putin deliberately raised the price in order to limit Nikol Pashinyan’s room for maneuver,” Surenyants said.
In his assessment, the military base issue could also become an additional bargaining tool for Russia.
Turkey and Azerbaijan as Factors in the Event of a Base Withdrawal
Surenyants believes that the issue of the 102nd military base is not solely a matter of Russian-Armenian relations.
It is directly connected to Armenia’s security environment, particularly its relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan.
The political scientist emphasizes the particular nature of the Armenian-Turkish border. Armenia and Turkey do not have a separate bilateral agreement on their state border, while the current border is linked to the legal and political framework established between the former Soviet Union and Turkey.
For this reason, according to Surenyants, the presence of the military base is not merely a military issue.
It is also connected to the question of what guarantees Armenia has from Turkey regarding recognition of the territorial integrity and borders of the Republic of Armenia.